Bears 27, Buccaneers 24 — Week 9: Five Giveaways, Still a Win

Chicago beat Tampa Bay 27-24 at home on Sunday, its fourth straight win, and went to 7-2 on Cairo Santos's 38-yard field goal with 3 seconds left. The Bears gave the ball away five times, tying Week 5 for their most this season, and still led 14-0 after a quarter and 17-6 at halftime. Jaylon Johnson's 67-yard interception return made it 24-13 in the third. A lost fumble at their own 21 with 3:48 left let the Buccaneers tie it at 24. 13 drives produced two touchdowns, two field goals, five turnovers and three three-and-outs.

The passing game was Muffed five times and sharp the rest of the day, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits it cleanly: four interceptions and a lost fumble cost -20.7, while the other 33 pass plays were worth +9.4, +0.29 a play against +0.11 through Week 8. For the game: -11.2 on 38 pass plays, -0.30 a play, the second-worst game this season after Week 5. Caleb Williams completed 22 of 37 for 279 yards and two touchdowns with four interceptions, after throwing one in his first five games. Three came in the second quarter with Chicago up 14-3: Tykee Smith picked him off at the Tampa Bay 3, Zyon McCollum at the 18 on the Bears' next snap, and McCollum again at the Chicago 43 with 43 seconds left, which became a field goal. The good part came early. Up 7-0, third and 8 at his own 44, Williams hit Luther Burden III short over the middle and Burden went 56 yards for the touchdown, +5.7 EPA. Rome Odunze caught the first score, 9 yards on third and 6. The offense converted 7 of 13 third downs.

The run game stalled, and yards per carry shows it: D'Andre Swift ran 12 times for 31, 2.6 a carry. The 20 rush plays came to 76 yards and -1.4 EPA, -0.07 a play against +0.01 through Week 8, with 45% successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Williams's three scrambles gained 20 yards.

The pass defense Smashed, and EPA allowed per play measures it: Tampa Bay's 36 pass plays were worth -12.6, -0.35 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 8, the Bears' best game by that measure since Week 3. On defense a negative number is good. Baker Mayfield completed 18 of 32 for 243 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, and only 33.3% of the pass plays succeeded. Austin Booker, Shemar Turner and Jeffery Simmons had a sack each and Daniel Hardy and Grady Jarrett split a fourth; the defense stopped 10 of 12 third downs. Cam Lewis intercepted Mayfield at the Chicago 26 with 48 seconds left in the half. The play of the day came up 17-13 with 3:50 left in the third, two snaps after Williams's fourth interception gave Tampa Bay the ball at the Chicago 37. Second and 9 at the 36, Mayfield threw short right for Cade Otton, and Johnson intercepted at the 33 and ran it back 67 yards for the touchdown: -9.9 EPA and 27.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. The leaks were two long throws, Kenny Gainwell's 44-yard catch on third and 9 and Tez Johnson's 58-yarder to the 2.

The run defense held near its standard, and success rate is the honest read: 46.4% of Tampa Bay's 28 rush plays succeeded, for 126 yards and two touchdowns, at -0.07 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too. The first half was the strong part, 14 runs worth -6.0. Devin Bush stopped Gainwell for a 1-yard loss on third and 3 at the Chicago 3, and the Buccaneers kicked. Bush and James Lynch stopped Mayfield for no gain on fourth and 1 at the Tampa Bay 35, -3.2 EPA. After halftime the 14 runs came to +4.1, and Bucky Irving scored twice.

The game turned on the last drive. Tied 24-24, Chicago took over at its own 31 with 2:51 left. On third and 4 at the 37, Williams found Kalif Raymond short left for 8 yards and the first down, 8.5 points of win probability. With 47 seconds left, second and 9 at the Chicago 46, he went deep left to Colston Loveland for 38 yards to the Tampa Bay 16, +2.9 EPA and 16.6 points. Two kneel-downs drew Tampa Bay's last timeout, and Santos kicked from 38 with 3 seconds left, worth 21.5 points of win probability.

Last week's episode asked whether a run game at +0.20 a play would keep adding value after Swift averaged 2.6 yards a carry. It did not: -0.07 a play on 20 rush plays, and Swift at 2.6 a carry again. The one to watch next: whether Williams, at +0.29 EPA a dropback across his first five games, gets back to the quarterback who had thrown one interception before Sunday.

That's your Bears, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._