Caleb Williams — Week 9: Four Picks, Then the Winning Drive

Caleb Williams threw four interceptions against the Buccaneers and still drove Chicago to the winning kick: 22 of 37 for 279 yards and two touchdowns, sacked once, in a 27-24 win at home. He was worth -7.9 expected points added (EPA) as a passer, what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.21 a dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +1.0.

The last drive is what Chicago will keep. Tied 24-24 with 2:46 left, he converted third and 4 at his own 37 with an 8-yard throw to Kalif Raymond, 8.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. With 47 seconds left, second and 9 at his own 46, he went deep left to Colston Loveland for 38 yards to the Tampa Bay 16: +2.9 EPA and 16.6 points. He knelt twice and Cairo Santos kicked from 38 with 3 seconds left.

The interceptions came in two bunches. Up 14-3 in the second quarter, Tykee Smith picked off a deep throw for Rome Odunze at the Tampa Bay 3, Zyon McCollum one for Luther Burden III at the 18 on the next Chicago snap, and McCollum another at the Chicago 43 with 43 seconds left in the half, which became a field goal. Up 17-13 in the third, second and 3 at his own 36, Alex Anzalone intercepted a short throw for Burden, -5.5 EPA and 17.0 points. The early part was sharp: touchdown throws of 9 yards to Odunze and 56 to Burden, both on third down, and 7 yards on a third-and-6 scramble on the opening drive. He ran 5 times for 16 yards, two of them kneel-downs.

He had thrown one interception in his first five games. Through Week 8 he had completed 112 of 158 for 1,267 yards, 6 touchdowns and +49.4 passing EPA, +0.29 a dropback.

Follow Caleb Williams on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._