Saints 23, Browns 22 — Week 9: The Stop at the 2

New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22 in overtime at home on Sunday, its first game since the Week 7 bye, when the defense stopped a two-point pass for the win with 1:00 left in the extra period. Tyler Shough threw a 15-yard touchdown to Juwan Johnson on the first overtime possession. Audric Estimé had put the Saints ahead 16-13 with 1:00 left in regulation before Andre Szmyt's 51-yarder tied it. 11 drives produced two touchdowns, three Charlie Smyth field goals and one lost fumble.

The passing game finished below its standard, and the sacks were most of it: Shough went down five times for -8.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, and four came on third down. The 40 pass plays were worth -7.0, -0.18 a play against +0.01 through Week 8. Shough completed 21 of 35 for 265 yards and the touchdown with no interception. Chris Olave drew 12 targets and caught 7 for 98, including a 36-yarder on third and 3 from the New Orleans 8 before the half. The giveaway was Jordyn Tyson's fumble at the Cleveland 2.

The run game was the better half of the offense, and EPA per play says by how far: 31 rush plays worth +4.2, +0.13 a play against -0.12 through Week 8, with 48.4% successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Shough's five scrambles all succeeded, for 50 yards and +4.5. Estimé ran 15 times for 72 yards, starting with gains of 9, 5 and 18 on the opening drive, and scored from the 2. In overtime all five runs succeeded: Alvin Kamara gained 9, 4 and 15, and Estimé converted third and 1 with 9.

The pass defense gave it back on four throws: Cleveland's completions of 60, 64, 30 and 39 yards were worth +15.7 EPA, its other 31 pass plays -11.2. In all, 35 pass plays came to +4.5, +0.13 a play against +0.09 allowed through Week 8; on defense a positive number is bad. The rush got home five times, Carl Granderson twice and Kaden Elliss, Chase Young and Khristian Boyd once each, and Granderson broke up a fourth-and-2 pass at the New Orleans 42 early in the fourth. KC Concepcion's 64-yard touchdown came on the first snap after Smyth's go-ahead 48-yarder.

The run defense Smashed, and success rate shows it: only 30.3% of Cleveland's 33 rush plays succeeded, for 96 yards. They were worth -11.4 EPA, -0.35 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 8; on defense a negative number is good. Quinshon Judkins ran 15 times for 43 yards and Dylan Sampson 8 for 21. The stand that held it came at 3-3 late in the first half, after Barion Brown's fumble on a punt return gave Cleveland the ball at the New Orleans 19. Judkins' 12-yard run reached the 3 and Sanders scrambled to the 1, with New Orleans spending all three of its timeouts on the series. On fourth and 1, Judkins went left guard and Elliss stopped him for no gain: -4.1 EPA for Cleveland and 14.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, to New Orleans. The half ended 3-3.

The game turned in overtime, twice. New Orleans got the ball first and went 74 yards in 11 plays, converting all three third downs: Kamara for 4 on third and 1, Estimé for 9 on third and 1, and Shough's short pass right to Johnson for the touchdown on third and 4, +3.0 EPA, for 23-16. Cleveland answered with Harold Fannin Jr.'s 39-yard touchdown on third and 7 with 1:11 left and went for two and the win rather than the tie. Shedeur Sanders' pass for Denzel Boston fell incomplete: 47.3 points of win probability to New Orleans, the largest swing of the game. The defense stopped 9 of 17 third downs.

Before the bye, the Week 7 notebook asked whether a run game that gained 12 yards on 16 designed runs could give the passing game any help. It did: 26 designed runs for 111 yards, and all five runs on the drive that won it succeeded. The passing game did not return the favor, at -0.18 a play. The one to watch next: whether a quarterback sacked five times here, a third of his 15 in seven games before the bye, can get the passing game back above its +0.01 season rate.

That's your Saints, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Saints on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._