Buccaneers 24, Bears 27 — Week 9: Five Takeaways, No Win

Tampa Bay lost 27-24 at Chicago on Sunday on Cairo Santos's 38-yard field goal with 3 seconds left, ending a two-game winning streak, and fell to 3-6. The defense took the ball away five times, four interceptions and a forced fumble, and the Buccaneers still trailed 14-0 after a quarter, 17-6 at halftime and 24-13 after a pick six in the third. Bucky Irving's 6-yard touchdown and Baker Mayfield's two-point run tied it with 2:51 left. 14 drives produced two touchdowns, three field goals, two turnovers, a turnover on downs and four three-and-outs.

The passing game found two big plays and little else, and success rate, the share of plays that gained what the situation asked for, says how rarely it worked: 12 of 36 pass plays, 33.3%. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -12.6, -0.35 a play against -0.23 through Week 8, and the 17 after halftime came to -13.0. Mayfield completed 18 of 32 for 243 yards, his most this season, with no touchdowns and two interceptions, and was sacked four times. Kenny Gainwell's 44-yard catch on third and 9 reached the Chicago 20, and Tez Johnson's 58-yarder down the middle set up Irving's first touchdown. The offense converted 2 of 12 third downs.

The run game was stopped in the first half and ran well in the second, and the EPA split shows the turn: 14 rush plays worth -6.0 before halftime, 14 worth +4.1 after it. For the game: -0.07 a play against +0.03 through Week 8, 126 yards, two touchdowns and a 46.4% success rate. Irving ran 20 times for 97 yards and both scores. The first half cost two short-yardage stops: Gainwell lost a yard on third and 3 at the Chicago 3, and Mayfield was stopped on fourth and 1 at his own 35, -3.2 EPA.

The pass defense Smashed, and the takeaways tell it: four interceptions and a forced fumble cost Chicago -20.7 EPA, with eight interceptions across the last two games. On defense a negative number is good. Chicago's 38 pass plays came to -0.30 a play against -0.20 allowed through Week 8, even though the other 33 were worth +9.4. Zyon McCollum had two interceptions, Tykee Smith and Alex Anzalone one each. Smith's saved points: down 14-3 in the second quarter, Chicago had first and goal at the 8 until an unnecessary-roughness penalty pushed it to second and 21 at the 21; Caleb Williams threw deep left for Rome Odunze, and Smith intercepted at the 3 and returned it 23 yards, -4.6 EPA for Chicago. With 3:48 left, down 24-16, Rueben Bain Jr. forced Luther Burden III's fumble and Ifeatu Melifonwu recovered at the Chicago 21. Irving scored three snaps later. The defense allowed 279 passing yards and two touchdowns, both in the first quarter, including Burden's 56-yard catch on third and 8.

The run defense held a little below its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Chicago's 20 rush plays were worth -0.07 a play, against -0.09 allowed through Week 8, for 76 yards and a 45% success rate. D'Andre Swift ran 12 times for 31 yards.

The game turned in 48 seconds of the third quarter. Down 17-13 with 4:38 left, Anzalone intercepted Williams's short throw for Burden at the Chicago 43 and ran it to the 37. Two snaps later, second and 9 at the 36, Mayfield threw short right for Cade Otton, and Jaylon Johnson intercepted at the 33 and returned it 67 yards for the touchdown: -9.9 EPA and 27.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. After the tie, Chicago got the ball at its own 31 with 2:51 left, converted a third and 4, and Colston Loveland's 38-yard catch with 47 seconds left reached the 16 for the winning kick.

Last week's episode asked whether an offense with 15 pass plays across two wins could move the ball through the air when a game asked it to. This one asked 36 times: 243 yards, two catches over 40, and -0.35 a play with a pick six and four sacks. The one to watch next: whether a defense with eight interceptions in two games keeps taking the ball away, and whether an offense that converted 2 of 12 third downs can turn its takeaways into touchdowns.

That's your Buccaneers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._