Broncos 26, Panthers 21 — Week 9: A Pick at the 1, a Strip at the End

Denver beat Carolina 26-21 on the road on Sunday, its fifth straight win, and went to 7-2. The Broncos led 10-0 in the second quarter and 13-7 at halftime, trailed 14-13 after the Panthers' first drive of the third, and scored the next 13 points. 10 drives produced three touchdowns, Wil Lutz field goals from 26 and 48, an interception and two three-and-outs. The defense took the ball away twice, both times with Carolina in Denver territory.

The passing game played well above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: 38 pass plays worth +8.3, +0.22 a play against -0.024 through Week 8. Half of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and Denver converted 6 of 10 third downs. Bo Nix completed 25 of 37 for 237 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, and nine players caught a pass. The throw that put it away came up 19-14 with 5:46 left. Third and 5 at the Carolina 26, one snap after an incompletion for Courtland Sutton, Nix went deep left to Pat Bryant for the 26-yard touchdown, +3.9 EPA. Sutton had scored the first touchdown from the 3 in the first quarter. The one cost: up 10-0, second and 8 at the Carolina 19, Corey Thornton intercepted a short throw for Sutton at the 5, -4.4 EPA.

The run game stayed below its standard, and success rate shows it: 9 of 26 rush plays, 34.6%, gained what the situation asked for, for 83 yards, worth -0.17 a play against -0.042 through Week 8. Jonah Coleman ran 17 times for 57 yards and the 9-yard touchdown that put Denver ahead for good. With 2:53 left, Nix lost the snap at the Denver 26 and Coleman fell on it at the 8, -1.4 EPA.

The pass defense gave up value play to play and won the snaps that decided it, and EPA per play allowed shows the first half: Carolina's 42 pass plays were worth +0.15 a play against -0.063 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. Bryce Young completed 28 of 39 for 276 yards and three touchdowns. Ja'Quan McMillian, Nik Bonitto, and Jonathon Cooper and Malcolm Roach on a shared sack brought him down three times, and the split sack came on third and 10 at the Carolina 27 with 9:33 left, protecting a 19-14 lead. Carolina converted 3 of 10 third downs.

The run defense gave a little more than usual, and EPA per play allowed puts it there: Carolina's 20 rush plays were worth +0.07 a play against +0.028 allowed through Week 8, 40% successful, for 96 yards. Chuba Hubbard ran 16 times for 79, including 23 yards on fourth and 1 before halftime that set up a touchdown. Bonitto stopped him for a 4-yard loss at the Carolina 12.

The game turned at the goal line. Down 14-13 with 1:35 left in the third, Carolina had first and goal at the 1, and Young threw short left for Tommy Tremble. It was ruled incomplete; Denver challenged, and the review gave Devon Key an interception in the end zone: +25.6 points of win probability for Denver, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The Broncos drove 80 yards from the touchback, Troy Franklin catching 6 yards on third and 6 to reach the 9, and Coleman scored on the next snap. With 1:24 left, up 26-21 and the Panthers at the Denver 36, Bonitto sacked Young, forced the fumble and recovered it himself at the 44, 32.5 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

Last week's episode asked whether a pass defense that allowed +0.25 a play against Kansas City would get back to its standard. Not yet: +0.15 a play here, against -0.063 for the season, though both takeaways came on Carolina's two best chances. The one to watch next: whether a run game at -0.17 a play here, against -0.042 for the season, finds room to carry more of the load.

That's your Broncos, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._