Texans 44, Chargers 22 — Week 9: Five Touchdown Passes

Houston beat the Chargers 44-22 in Los Angeles on Sunday, its first game since the Week 8 bye, and went to 4-4. The 44 points were the most the Texans have scored this season. 12 drives produced five touchdowns, all through the air, and three Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals, the first from 56 yards. The defense sacked Justin Herbert eight times, took the ball away twice and held the Chargers to 9 points until they trailed 38-9.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it: 38 pass plays worth +17.9, +0.47 a play against +0.11 through Week 8. Half of them succeeded. C.J. Stroud completed 21 of 35 for 384 yards, five touchdowns and an interception, and the deep ball carried it: 6 of 13 deep throws completed for 238 yards and +17.1 EPA. Up 10-9 with 4:37 left in the half, second and 5 at his own 37, he went deep right to Tank Dell for a 63-yard touchdown: +5.5 EPA and 18.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Kayshon Boutte caught two touchdowns, the second a 63-yarder on third and 5, and Xavier Hutchinson and Nico Collins one each. Houston converted 8 of 14 third downs, three of them for touchdowns.

The run game broke even, and for this offense that was a step forward: 26 rush plays worth 0.00 EPA a play against -0.10 through Week 8, its best game by that measure since Week 1. It came after halftime. The 9 first-half runs were worth -2.6, the 17 after it +2.6. Woody Marks ran 18 times for 70 yards, and 38.5% of all 26 plays succeeded, for 106 yards and no touchdowns.

The pass defense lived in the backfield, and success rate shows how little got through: 28.9% of the Chargers' 38 pass plays succeeded, worth -0.05 EPA a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. The eight sacks were the most Houston has had in a game this season; Jadeveon Clowney, Sheldon Rankins and Will Anderson Jr. had two each. Down 31-9 midway through the third, on fourth and 2 at the Chargers' 41, Clowney sacked Herbert for a 3-yard loss and a turnover on downs, -3.5 EPA. On the first drive after halftime, third and 16, Derek Stingley Jr. intercepted a deep throw at the Houston 20. Through three quarters the Chargers' 28 pass plays were worth -7.8, even with a 50-yard catch on fourth and 1; their 58-yard touchdown came with Houston up 29.

The run defense answered its worst game with its best, and total EPA allowed says so: the Chargers' 30 rush plays were worth -9.5, -0.32 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 8, the lowest Houston has allowed this season. Negative is good here too. Most of it came on one snap. Down 31-9 late in the third, second and 4 at the Houston 24, Keaton Mitchell was stopped for no gain, Henry To'oTo'o forced a fumble and Calen Bullock recovered at the 11, -4.9 EPA. The runs still moved: 46.7% succeeded, for 138 yards.

The game turned in the middle of the second quarter. Up 10-6 with 7:32 left in the half, Stroud threw short over the middle for Boutte and Daiyan Henley intercepted, returning it 18 yards to the Houston 38: -6.0 EPA and 16 points of win probability. The defense held the Chargers to a 43-yard field goal and 10-9. On the second play after the kickoff, Dell scored from 63. With 57 seconds left, third and 10 at his own 24, Stroud found Dalton Schultz for 14; Boutte's 35-yard catch reached the 12 and his 12-yard touchdown made it 24-9 at the half. Stingley's interception opened the third, and Collins scored on third and 6 for 31-9.

Before the bye, the Week 7 episode asked whether a run defense that allowed +0.30 a play against the Giants would get back to its standard. It went past it: -0.32 allowed, though 46.7% of the Chargers' runs still succeeded, close to the 50% the Giants had. The one to watch next: whether a run game that broke even here, after -0.10 a play coming in, can keep pace with a passing game this good.

That's your Texans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Texans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._