Baker Mayfield — Week 9: 243 Yards and a Pick Six

Baker Mayfield threw for his most yards of the season against the Bears and lost the game's biggest play: 18 of 32 for 243 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and four sacks in a 27-24 loss. Over 36 dropbacks he was worth -12.6 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.35 a dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -3.6.

The throw that cost the most came down 17-13 with 3:50 left in the third, two snaps after Alex Anzalone's interception gave Tampa Bay the ball at the Chicago 37. Second and 9 at the 36, he threw short right for Cade Otton, and Jaylon Johnson intercepted at the 33 and returned it 67 yards for the touchdown: -9.9 EPA and 27.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. His other interception came with 48 seconds left in the half, first and 10 at the Chicago 34, a short throw for Tez Johnson that Cam Lewis caught at the 26, -3.5 EPA.

The big throws set up points. On third and 9 at his own 36 in the first quarter, he went deep left to Kenny Gainwell for 44 yards, +4.3 EPA, and converted fourth and 2 at the Chicago 12 with a 2-yard throw to Otton; the drive ended in a field goal. Early in the third, first and 10 at his own 40, he went deep down the middle to Tez Johnson for 58 yards to the Chicago 2, +4.4 EPA, and Bucky Irving scored. On the ground he was stopped for no gain on fourth and 1 at his own 35, -3.2 EPA, and ran in the two-point try that tied it 24-24 with 2:51 left.

The yardage was a season high; the rate was below his season. Through Week 8, in five games, he had completed 68 of 110 for 679 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, with 14 sacks and -30.8 passing EPA, -0.25 a dropback.

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_Data via nflverse._