Browns 22, Saints 23 — Week 9: Two Yards Short in Overtime

Cleveland lost 23-22 in overtime at New Orleans on Sunday, when Shedeur Sanders' two-point pass for Denzel Boston fell incomplete with 1:00 left in the extra period. Sanders took every snap at quarterback after throwing 3 passes in the first eight weeks. The Browns tied it 16-16 on Andre Szmyt's 51-yard field goal with 12 seconds left in regulation, fell behind on the first overtime possession and answered with a 39-yard touchdown. 12 drives produced two touchdowns, three Szmyt field goals, two turnovers on downs and no giveaways.

The passing game lived on four throws, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, shows how much: Sanders' completions of 60, 64, 30 and 39 yards were worth +15.7, the other 31 pass plays -11.2. For the game: +4.5 on 35 pass plays, +0.13 a play against -0.06 through Week 8, for 297 passing yards and two touchdowns. Five sacks cost -8.3 of it, and only 37.1% of pass plays succeeded. Down 9-6 with 5:33 left, on the first snap after a kickoff, Sanders went deep right to KC Concepcion for a 64-yard touchdown, +5.1 EPA. Boston caught 6 of 7 targets for 98 yards.

The run game Muffed it, and success rate, the share of plays that gained what the situation asked for, says how often: 30.3% of 33 rush plays, for 96 yards. They were worth -11.4 EPA, -0.35 a play against -0.12 through Week 8. Quinshon Judkins ran 15 times for 43 yards and Dylan Sampson 8 for 21.

The pass defense carried regulation, and the sack count tells it: five, worth -8.9 EPA by themselves. On defense a negative number is good. New Orleans' 40 pass plays came to -7.0, -0.18 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 8; through regulation its 34 were at -0.30 before the overtime drive's six added +3.2. Carson Schwesinger and Myles Harden had two sacks each and Mike Hall Jr. one, and four of the five came on third down. The biggest play came at 3-3 midway through the second quarter: second and 10 at the Cleveland 11, Tyler Shough threw short left to Jordyn Tyson, who reached the 2 before Schwesinger forced a fumble that Tyson Campbell recovered at the 1, -3.9 EPA and 10.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. New Orleans' two other trips inside the 10 ended in field goals, and the defense stopped 9 of 16 third downs.

The run defense held the backs and leaked to the quarterback. Shough's five scrambles all succeeded, for 50 yards and +4.5 EPA, while New Orleans' 26 designed runs came to -0.4. In all, 31 rush plays were worth +4.2, +0.13 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 8; here a positive number is bad. Audric Estimé ran 15 times for 72 yards and the go-ahead 2-yard touchdown with 1:00 left in regulation, and all five overtime runs succeeded, for 45 yards.

The game turned on two snaps at the goal line. Tied 3-3 late in the first half, after Donovan McMillon recovered Barion Brown's fumble on a punt return at the New Orleans 19, Cleveland reached the 1, and Judkins was stopped for no gain on fourth and 1 by Kaden Elliss: -4.1 EPA and 14.2 points of win probability. In overtime, down 23-16 after Juwan Johnson's 15-yard touchdown, Sanders found Boston for 15 on second and 14 and 8 on third and 4, then hit Harold Fannin Jr. short right on third and 7 for a 39-yard touchdown with 1:11 left, lifting Cleveland's win probability from 12.5% to 47.4%. Cleveland went for two and the win instead of the tie. The pass for Boston fell incomplete, 47.3 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

Last week's notebook asked whether the protection that allowed eight sacks against Pittsburgh could keep the quarterback upright. With Sanders behind it, it allowed five, two on third down, and the offense still scored 22. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at +0.13 a play, against -0.06 through Week 8, can add value on more than its deep shots, and whether a run game at -0.35 a play gets back toward its own -0.12.

That's your Browns, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._