Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3 — Week 9: Arizona Held to Three

Seattle beat Arizona 17-3 at Lumen Field on Sunday and is 5-4, a week after losing 34-17 to Chicago. The Seahawks swept the season series 48-10 across the two games, and the 3 points matched the fewest they have allowed this season, Kansas City's 3 in Week 7. Drew Lock started at quarterback, as he did in the 31-7 win at Arizona in Week 2. Nine drives produced two touchdowns, a Jason Myers field goal and two three-and-outs, and neither team turned the ball over.

The passing game beat its standard without taking a sack, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: 28 pass plays worth +5.1, +0.18 a play against +0.02 through Week 8. Lock completed 19 of 28 for 175 yards and a touchdown, without an interception. Jadarian Price caught all 4 of his targets for 54 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba drew 10 targets and caught 7 for 51 yards, his lowest total of the season. He did his work on the last drive of the half: from the Seattle 19 with 1:45 left, he caught passes of 13 and 18 yards and drew a 29-yard pass interference penalty on Max Melton, and AJ Barner caught a 7-yarder for the touchdown with 18 seconds left, upheld on review, for 14-3.

The run game came in above its baseline without carrying the offense, and success rate puts it in proportion: 11 of 30 rush plays, 36.7%, were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. EPA had them at -0.03 a play against -0.15 through Week 8, for 122 yards and a touchdown. Zach Charbonnet ran 16 times for 77 yards; Price ran 9 times for 24, and none of the 9 succeeded. The touchdown came on two direct snaps to Barner from the 2, the second a yard up the middle. The run game also closed it: taking over at its own 1 with 4:35 left, Seattle ran out the clock, Charbonnet carrying four times for 33 yards as Arizona spent all three timeouts.

The pass defense held Arizona well below its standard, and total EPA allowed says by how much: 33 pass plays worth -7.0, -0.21 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. Gardner Minshew completed 21 of 30 for 166 yards without a touchdown and was sacked three times, by Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler Jr. Murphy's cost Arizona the most. Down 7-3 midway through the second quarter, the Cardinals had reached the Seattle 35; after a 2-yard loss, on third and 8 at the 37, Murphy sacked Minshew for 6 yards: -2.0 EPA for Arizona and 6.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Arizona punted from the 43. Lawrence's sack came on third and 2 at the Arizona 40 early in the third, and Arizona punted again. Seattle stopped 9 of Arizona's 13 third downs.

The run defense gave up 50 yards on 18 rush plays, and EPA per play allowed shows how little that was: -0.15 against -0.07 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too. Only 7 of the 18 succeeded, 38.9%. Tyler Allgeier ran 17 times for 46 yards, 17 of them on one carry on the opening drive. The red zone held: Arizona ran 10 snaps inside the Seattle 20 and scored no touchdowns. Down 17-3 with 6:00 left, first and goal at the 4, Lawrence dropped Allgeier for a 2-yard loss, and after a Minshew run to the 2, two throws fell incomplete, the fourth-down one for Trey McBride with Nick Emmanwori named on the play.

The game turned on Seattle's third possession. Down 3-0 late in the first quarter, third and 8 at its own 44, Lock threw short left to Price, pushed out at the Arizona 41 after 15 yards: +2.4 EPA and 10.0 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Three snaps later Charbonnet converted a third and 1 with an 8-yard run up the middle to the 24, and an Arizona encroachment on the last snap of the quarter moved the ball to the 2. Barner scored on the second snap of the second quarter, and Arizona never scored again.

Last week's episode asked whether a run defense that allowed -0.12 a play through Week 7 would get back to it against Arizona, after holding the Cardinals to 70 yards on 17 rush plays in Week 2. It did, after Chicago's +0.20 a play: 50 yards on 18, -0.15 a play. The one to watch next: whether Smith-Njigba, worth +0.72 EPA a target through Week 8, gets back to that after -0.18 a target on his 10 here.

That's your Seahawks, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._