Bucky Irving — Week 9: Two Scores and the Tying Run

Bucky Irving scored both of Tampa Bay's touchdowns against the Bears: 20 carries, 97 yards and +2.5 expected points added (EPA), what a carry was worth given down, distance and field position, plus 4 catches on 5 targets for 28 yards. Half of his carries, 10 of 20, were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for.

The one that counted most came after Chicago's late fumble. Down 24-16 with 3:38 left, first and 10 at the Chicago 17, he ran right for 11 yards to the 6. On the next snap, first and 6, he went through the left side for the touchdown: +1.7 EPA and 14.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Baker Mayfield ran in the two-point try for 24-24.

His first score came early in the third, down 17-6, two snaps after Tez Johnson's 58-yard catch reached the 2: stopped for no gain on first and 2, he scored around left end on second. He opened the fourth with a 25-yard run to the Chicago 33; Montez Sweat knocked the ball loose, but it went out of bounds at the 31, and the drive ended in a 35-yard field goal. The first half was harder going: on third and 4 at his own 46 on the opening drive, Austin Booker and Grady Jarrett stopped him for no gain, -1.7 EPA.

It beat his season rate. Through Week 8 he had 147 carries for 728 yards, five touchdowns and -0.2 EPA, flat per carry, with a 42.2% success rate; here it was +0.13 a carry and 50%. The two touchdowns matched Week 7.

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_Data via nflverse._