Cardinals 3, Seahawks 17 — Week 9: Three Points, Stopped at the 2

Arizona lost 17-3 at Seattle on Sunday and fell to 3-6, a week after winning in overtime at Dallas. The 3 points were the Cardinals' fewest this season, and the two games against Seattle have produced 10 of them. Gardner Minshew made his first start of the season after replacing Jacoby Brissett at Dallas. Nine drives produced one field goal, a turnover on downs at the Seattle 2 and three three-and-outs; neither team turned the ball over.

The passing game fell well short of its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far: 33 pass plays worth -7.0, -0.21 a play against -0.02 through Week 8. Minshew completed 21 of 30 for 166 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions and was sacked three times for 18 yards. Third downs ended most drives: Arizona converted 4 of 13. On the second possession, third and 3 at its own 27, Minshew was flagged for intentional grounding, -2.7 EPA, and Arizona punted. Trey McBride caught 7 of 8 targets for 54 yards and Michael Wilson 6 of 7 for 60.

The run game rarely kept Arizona on schedule, and success rate shows it: 7 of 18 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, 38.9%. They were worth -0.15 a play against -0.02 through Week 8, for 50 yards. Tyler Allgeier ran 17 times for 46, a week after 147 on 11 at Dallas, and 17 of the 46 came on one carry on the opening drive.

The pass defense lost the third downs, and the conversion rate tells it: Seattle converted 7 of 13, 53.8%, and Arizona never sacked Drew Lock. Seattle's 28 pass plays were worth +0.18 a play, a little better than the +0.23 Arizona had allowed through Week 8; on defense a positive number is bad. Lock completed 19 of 28 for 175 yards and a touchdown. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was held to 51 yards on 10 targets, but two pass interference penalties paid Seattle 49 yards: Denzel Burke's 20 on third and 9 kept alive the third-quarter field goal drive, and Max Melton's 29 with 32 seconds left in the half moved Seattle to the Arizona 25 before its second touchdown.

The run defense gave more than usual, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Seattle's 30 rush plays were worth -0.03 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 8. Here a negative number is good, so this was worse. They gained 122 yards and scored once, AJ Barner up the middle from the 1 on a direct snap. Zach Charbonnet ran 16 times for 77. Taking over at its own 1 with 4:35 left, Seattle ran out the clock; Arizona spent all three timeouts in the first three snaps.

The game turned in the second quarter. Down 7-3 with 8:13 left, first and 10 at his own 38, Minshew threw short left to Wilson for 23 yards to the Seattle 39, +5.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Two snaps later Allgeier lost 2, and on third and 8 at the Seattle 37 Byron Murphy II sacked Minshew for 6: -2.0 EPA and -6.7 points of win probability. Arizona punted. On Seattle's last possession of the half, Lock went 81 yards from his own 19 in 1:27, and Barner caught a 7-yard touchdown with 18 seconds left for 14-3.

The last chance ended at the 2. Down 17-3 with 7:47 left, fourth and 1 at the Seattle 32, McBride caught a 15-yarder to the 17, and Wilson's 4-yard catch on third and 1 made it first and goal at the 4. Allgeier lost 2, Minshew ran to the 2, and two throws fell incomplete, the fourth-down one for McBride. Arizona ran 10 snaps inside the Seattle 20 and scored no touchdowns.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game worth -0.60 a play under Brissett and +0.70 under Minshew would settle near the second number, and whether a run game that got 115 of its 202 yards on two carries could get more from the rest. With Minshew throwing every pass, it settled at -0.21; the run game's 18 rush plays gained 50 yards, none longer than 17. The one to watch next: whether an offense that went 0 for 10 on red-zone snaps here finds the end zone, after 3 touchdowns on 14 red-zone snaps at Dallas.

That's your Cardinals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._