Panthers 21, Broncos 26 — Week 9: Picked Off at the 1

Carolina lost 26-21 at home to Denver on Sunday, its third straight loss, and fell to 3-5. The Panthers trailed 10-0 midway through the second quarter and led 14-13 midway through the third. Two drives decided it: one that could have made it 21-13 reached first and goal at the Denver 1 and ended in an interception, and the last, down 26-21 with 1:24 left, ended in a strip-sack at the Denver 44. Nine drives produced three touchdowns, a missed 43-yard field goal, two turnovers and two three-and-outs.

The passing game played above its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts it there: 42 pass plays worth +6.3, +0.15 a play against +0.055 through Week 8. Half of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Bryce Young completed 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times. Darren Waller caught 8 of 10 targets for 90 yards. Down 13-7 on the first drive of the second half, third and 9 at the Denver 15, Young found him over the short middle for the touchdown and a 14-13 lead, +3.1 EPA. The late touchdown came off a fourth and 18: down 26-14 at the Denver 34, Young went deep left to John Metchie III for 25 yards, a roughing-the-passer flag on Zach Allen moved it to the 4, and Tetairoa McMillan caught the score on the next snap.

The run game added a little, and EPA per play says how little: 20 rush plays worth +0.07 a play against +0.007 through Week 8, 40% of them successful, for 96 yards. Chuba Hubbard ran 16 times for 79. Down 10-0 with 1:49 left in the half, fourth and 1 at the Denver 35, he went around left end for 23 yards to the 12, +2.9 EPA, and Tommy Tremble caught a 10-yard touchdown two snaps later.

The pass defense fell well short of its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures the gap: Denver's 38 pass plays were worth +8.3, +0.22 a play against +0.023 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. Bo Nix completed 25 of 37 for 237 yards and two touchdowns, and Denver converted 6 of 10 third downs. Four pass-interference flags, two each on Corey Thornton and Marco Wilson, gave away 59 more yards. Thornton also made the defense's best play: down 10-0, second and 8 at the Carolina 19, he intercepted a short throw for Courtland Sutton at the 5, -4.4 EPA for Denver. Patrick Jones II had the only sack.

The run defense won its side, and success rate allowed shows how often: only 9 of Denver's 26 rush plays, 34.6%, gained what the situation asked for, for 83 yards. They were worth -4.5 EPA, -0.17 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 8; here a negative number is good. Jonah Coleman ran 17 times for 57 yards. Jones had three tackles for loss, and Lee Hunter dropped Coleman for 3 on second and 2 at the Carolina 40 in the first quarter. The one run that hurt was Coleman's 9-yard touchdown for 19-14.

The game turned at the goal line late in the third quarter. Up 14-13 with 1:35 left, first and goal at the 1 after a pass-interference flag, Young threw short left for Tremble. It was ruled incomplete; Denver challenged, and the review gave Devon Key an interception in the end zone: -7.0 EPA and 25.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Denver drove 80 yards from the touchback and Coleman scored. The last chance went the same way. Down 26-21, McMillan's 20-yard catch reached the Denver 36 with 1:24 left, and on the next snap Nik Bonitto sacked Young, forced the fumble and recovered it at the 44, 32.5 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game that threw deep once in 41 attempts would get back down the field, and whether the sacks would come down after 11 in two games. Both did: Young threw deep 8 times and completed 3 for 66 yards, and was sacked three times. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.22 a play and four pass-interference flags gets back to its +0.023 standard.

That's your Panthers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Panthers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._