Vikings 6, Bills 23 — Week 9: 0 for 8 on Third Down

Minnesota lost 23-6 to Buffalo at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night, its first home loss and second straight defeat, and fell to 6-2. Carson Wentz played quarterback for the first time since Week 2, with Kyler Murray out of the lineup. The 6 points were the Vikings' fewest this season: they trailed 10-6 at halftime and did not score again. 12 drives produced two Will Reichard field goals, a lost fumble, two interceptions, two turnovers on downs and five punts.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how badly: 33 pass plays worth -26.2, more than double the -12.1 of the previous worst game, at Tampa Bay in Week 3. That is -0.80 a play against -0.08 through Week 8, and 27.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Wentz completed 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions and was sacked once; Max Brosmer went 6 of 7 for 58 on the final drive, down 23-6. Justin Jefferson drew 11 targets, his most this season, and caught 3 for 58. The best throw came down 3-0 in the second quarter, second and 8 at the Minnesota 49: Wentz hit T.J. Hockenson over the middle for 14 yards, +1.4 EPA and 8.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run game got 12 rush plays, the fewest in any Vikings game this season, and one of them cost more than the other 11 combined. With 5:30 left in the first quarter, one snap after Byron Murphy's interception gave Minnesota the ball at its own 47, Wentz's throw for Jefferson was ruled incomplete, Buffalo challenged, and replay made it a fumble Greg Rousseau had recovered at the 44: -6.0 EPA and 13.6 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The other 11 gained 51 yards and came to -1.6 EPA, -0.14 a play, close to the -0.13 Minnesota had managed through Week 8. Jordan Mason ran 6 times for 35 yards and Aaron Jones 5 times for 16.

The pass defense got home and took the ball away, and four sacks of Josh Allen lead it: Dallas Turner on Buffalo's opening third down, Jalen Redmond and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins together, Ivan Pace Jr. and Andrew Van Ginkel, whose fumble recovery at the Buffalo 1 was overturned on replay. On third and 23 at the Minnesota 36 in the first quarter, Murphy intercepted a deep throw for DJ Moore 7 yards deep in the end zone and returned it 54 yards, -4.7 EPA for Buffalo. Otherwise Buffalo moved: 51.4% of its 35 pass plays succeeded, after 36.1% allowed through Week 8, and they came to about zero EPA a play against -0.24 allowed; on defense a negative number is good. Allen completed 21 of 31 for 234 yards, and with 53 seconds left in the half, first and 10 at the Minnesota 25, he threw deep right to Keleki Latu for the touchdown and a 10-3 lead, +3.2 EPA.

The run defense kept Buffalo's runs inefficient and still lost the clock to them. Only 12 of 40 rush plays, 30%, gained what the situation asked for, after 38.5% allowed through Week 8, and EPA had them at -3.2, -0.08 a play, matching the -0.08 allowed through Week 8; here, too, negative is good. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. The first half held at 17 rush plays for 41 yards; after it Buffalo ran 23 times for 96 yards and +2.4 EPA, 15 of them in the fourth quarter.

The game turned on two straight third-quarter possessions that ended in interceptions. Down 10-6 on the first drive after halftime, Terrel Bernard's pass interference on a deep throw for Jones on third and 4 moved the ball 19 yards to the Buffalo 37. On the next snap Wentz went deep right for Hockenson and Dorian Williams intercepted at the 11, -4.2 EPA and 10.4 points of win probability. Buffalo took 14 plays and 7:08 to kick a 25-yard field goal for 13-6. Mason then ran 8, 11 and 5 yards to the Buffalo 47, and on second and 5 Bernard intercepted a short throw for Jefferson at the 34, -4.9 EPA and 10.6 points. Early in the fourth Buffalo drove 84 yards in 15 plays, 12 of them runs, over 8:32, and Cook scored from the 5 for 20-6.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run defense that gave up 166 yards after halftime in Detroit would get back to the -0.11 a play it allowed through Week 7. It allowed -0.08 a play and its lowest success rate since Week 5, though Buffalo again ran for 96 yards after halftime. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that went 0 for 8 on third down and lost 26.2 expected points gets back to -0.08 a play at Green Bay in Week 10, after +0.02 a play against the Packers in Week 1.

That's your Vikings, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._