Chargers 22, Texans 44 — Week 9: Eight Sacks and 0-8

The Chargers lost 44-22 to the Texans in Los Angeles on Sunday and fell to 0-8. The 44 points were the most they have allowed this season. Three Cameron Dicker field goals, from 52, 33 and 43 yards, had them within 10-9 midway through the second quarter; they trailed 24-9 at the half. Their first touchdowns since Week 5 came in the fourth quarter, down 29 and 26. 13 drives produced the two touchdowns, the three field goals, two giveaways and two turnovers on downs.

The passing game was better than its season and still lost the down to the pass rush, and the sacks carry it: Justin Herbert went down eight times, the most the Chargers have allowed in a game this season, and those eight plays were worth -10.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. The 30 other pass plays came to +9.0. In all, 38 pass plays were worth -0.05 a play against -0.30 through Week 8, and only 28.9% succeeded. Herbert completed 13 of 23 for 193 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Through three quarters it was -0.28 a play. Down 38-9, third and 8 at his own 42, he threw short right to Quentin Johnston for a 58-yard touchdown, +6.0 EPA. DJ Uiagalelei finished 2 of 6 for 24 and a 15-yard touchdown on fourth and 13.

The run game succeeded more often than it was worth, and success rate is the generous read: 14 of 30 rush plays, 46.7%, gained what the situation asked for, after 20% at the Rams. EPA had them at -9.5, -0.32 a play against -0.20 through Week 8. One snap cost -4.9 of it: down 31-9 late in the third, second and 4 at the Houston 24, Keaton Mitchell was stopped and Henry To'oTo'o forced a fumble that Calen Bullock recovered at the 11. In the second quarter, first and 9 at the Houston 9, Omarion Hampton gained a yard and then none, and Dicker kicked from 33. Hampton ran 13 times for 60 yards, Mitchell 7 for 33 and Kimani Vidal 7 for 30.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed puts a number on it: Houston's 38 pass plays were worth +17.9, +0.47 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 8, the worst the Chargers have allowed this season. On defense a positive number is bad. C.J. Stroud completed 21 of 35 for 384 yards and five touchdowns, and the deep throws did the damage: 6 of 13 completed for 238 yards. Up 31-9 early in the fourth, third and 5 at the Houston 37, Stroud threw deep over the middle to Kayshon Boutte for a 63-yard touchdown, +6.4 EPA. The defense sacked Stroud once and stopped 6 of 14 third downs.

The run defense held to an even line, and EPA per play allowed shows it: Houston's 26 rush plays were worth 0.00 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 8; here a positive number is bad. Woody Marks ran 18 times for 70 yards, and 38.5% of the runs succeeded, for 106. Two 15-yard personal fouls, a face mask and an unnecessary roughness, extended runs that had gained 6 yards and none.

The game turned in the middle of the second quarter. Down 10-6 with 7:32 left in the half, Daiyan Henley intercepted Stroud's short throw over the middle at the Chargers' 44 and returned it 18 yards to the Houston 38: 16 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The offense gained 14 yards from there, and Dicker's 43-yarder made it 10-9. On Houston's second play after the kickoff, second and 5 at its own 37, Stroud threw deep right to Tank Dell for a 63-yard touchdown, 18.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Boutte's 12-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left made it 24-9, and Derek Stingley Jr. intercepted Herbert on third and 16 to open the third.

Last week's episode asked whether a run game that succeeded on 20% of its plays could keep the offense out of third and long. The success rate more than doubled, to 46.7%, but 11 of 17 third downs needed 7 yards or more, the most in any Chargers game this season, and they converted 5. The one to watch next: whether an offense that took eight sacks, after 23 in seven games, can give Herbert time to throw.

That's your Chargers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._