Bills 23, Vikings 6 — Week 9: Vikings 0 for 8 on Third Down

Buffalo beat Minnesota 23-6 in Minneapolis on Monday night, its fourth straight win, and went to 7-1. The 6 points were the fewest the Bills have allowed this season, a week after they held Baltimore to 10. The defense took the ball away three times and stopped all 8 of the Vikings' third downs. 11 drives produced two touchdowns, three Tyler Bass field goals, an interception and three three-and-outs.

The passing game moved the chains and gave the value back, and success rate against expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows the gap. 51.4% of the 35 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, against 45.0% through Week 8, yet they came to -0.1 EPA, about zero a play against +0.23 through Week 8. Josh Allen completed 21 of 31 for 234 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked four times, tied for his most this season; the sacks cost -6.4 EPA. The interception came scoreless in the first quarter: an intentional grounding turned first and 10 at the Minnesota 23 into second and 23, and on third and 23 Byron Murphy picked off a deep throw for DJ Moore in the end zone and returned it 54 yards, -4.7 EPA. The touchdown came tied 3-3 with 53 seconds left in the half: first and 10 at the Minnesota 25, Allen went deep right to tight end Keleki Latu for his first catch of the season, +3.2 EPA.

The run game carried the load without adding value, and EPA per play measures it: 40 rush plays, the most Buffalo has run in a game this season, worth -3.2, -0.08 a play against +0.13 through Week 8. Only 30% succeeded, the lowest share in any Bills game this season, after 53.1% through Week 8. James Cook carried 31 times, six more than his previous high this season, for 107 yards and a touchdown; his 15 first-half carries gained 33 yards. In the fourth quarter he ran 9 times for 47 yards on one drive, the last two an 11-yarder on second and 1 to the Minnesota 5 and a 5-yard touchdown up the middle on the next snap, for 20-6 with 6:21 left.

The pass defense Smashed for a second straight week, and EPA allowed per play measures it: Minnesota's 33 pass plays were worth -26.2, -0.79 a play against +0.12 allowed through Week 8, Buffalo's best game this season by that measure, after -0.67 against Baltimore. On defense a big negative number is good. Carson Wentz completed 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions and was sacked once, and Justin Jefferson caught 3 of his 11 targets for 58 yards. The second interception ended Minnesota's best drive. Down 13-6 with 4:10 left in the third, after Jordan Mason had run for 8, 11 and 5 yards, second and 5 at the Buffalo 47, Wentz threw short over the middle for Jefferson and linebacker Terrel Bernard intercepted at the 34: -4.9 EPA and 10.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The Vikings also went 0 for 2 on fourth down, the second with Max Brosmer at quarterback on the final drive, a yard short on fourth and 9 at the Buffalo 21.

The run defense allowed its lowest success rate of the season: 3 of Minnesota's 12 rush plays, 25%, gained what the situation asked for, after 43.1% allowed through Week 8. They came to 51 yards and -7.6 EPA, -0.63 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too, and -6.0 of it came on one snap the play-by-play files as a run. On the play after Allen's interception, first and 10 at the Minnesota 47, Wentz's throw for Jefferson was ruled incomplete; Buffalo challenged, replay ruled it a fumble, and Greg Rousseau had recovered at the Minnesota 44: 13.6 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Rousseau added a sack and three quarterback hits.

The game turned at the start of the second half. Up 10-6, Buffalo gave Minnesota a first down on a 19-yard pass interference by Bernard on third and 4, and on the next snap, first and 10 at the Buffalo 37, linebacker Dorian Williams intercepted Wentz's deep throw for T.J. Hockenson at the 11, -4.2 EPA and 10.4 points of win probability. The Bills then went 14 plays in 7:08. On third and 8 at their own 25, Allen threw deep left to running back Ty Johnson for 36 yards, +3.8 EPA and 13.3 points of win probability, the biggest offensive swing of the night. Bass's 25-yarder made it 13-6. After Bernard's interception and a punt, Buffalo went 84 yards in 15 plays and 8:32, and on fourth and 1 at the Minnesota 38 replay turned a stop on Allen's sneak into a first down, +2.1 EPA.

Last week's episode asked whether a run game that succeeded on 51.3% of its plays against Baltimore would start adding value again. It has not: 30% succeeded here, worth -0.08 a play. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that has allowed -0.67 and -0.79 a play in its last two games, after +0.21 a play over its first six, holds anywhere near that level.

That's your Bills, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._