Texans 34, Jaguars 31 — Week 6: Noel's 107, Fairbairn From 49

Houston won 34-31 at Jacksonville on Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal with 3 seconds left, a game it led by 10 after three quarters and had to win a second time. An end-zone interception with 3:59 left kept the lead at 31-28 instead of stretching it, and Cam Little's 60-yard field goal tied it with 2:00 to go. 10 drives produced four touchdowns, two field goals, one turnover and two three-and-outs.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 34 pass plays were worth +13.9 EPA, +0.41 a play, against +0.08 through Week 5, and 52.9% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. C.J. Stroud completed 24 of 34 for 312 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Jaylin Noel caught all 4 of his targets for 107 yards, Nico Collins 3 of 5 for 74, including 42 deep right to the Jacksonville 9 on the first touchdown drive, and Foster Moreau's two catches were both touchdowns, from 6 and 1. Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 3 of 4 for 34. The throw that broke the game open came up 17-14 with 9:26 left in the third: third and 10 at the Jacksonville 13, Stroud went short right to Noel, who scored. That snap was worth +3.27 EPA and 9.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and made it 24-14.

The run game was better than its own standard without being good, and EPA per play shows it: 25 rush plays worth -0.62 EPA, -0.03 a play, against -0.12 through Week 5. Of those, 40% succeeded, for 114 yards. Woody Marks ran 15 times for 56, and Jawhar Jordan 6 for 43. Jordan's biggest came up 24-21 with 58 seconds left in the third, first and 10 at the Jacksonville 25: through left tackle for the touchdown, +2.79 EPA, and a 31-21 lead.

The pass defense gave up four touchdowns, and the success rate allowed says it: 53.7% of Jacksonville's 41 pass plays succeeded. They were worth +11.4 EPA, +0.28 a play, against +0.01 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is bad. Trevor Lawrence completed 24 of 41 for 306 yards and four touchdowns, two to Bhayshul Tuten. The stop that mattered came up 7-0 early in the second quarter: third and 5 at the Houston 5, Lawrence threw for Jakobi Meyers and Calen Bullock intercepted in the end zone, -4.82 EPA for Jacksonville and 12.9 points of win probability. In a scoreless first quarter a fourth and 3 at the Houston 37 fell incomplete, -2.35 EPA.

The run defense slipped from its standard, and the per-play figure shows it: Jacksonville's 26 rush plays were worth +0.25 EPA, +0.01 a play, against -0.12 allowed through Week 5; here, too, positive is the bad direction. Half of them succeeded, for 107 yards, but none scored. Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran 11 times for 55.

The game turned against Houston and then back. Up 31-28 with 7:46 left, third and 11 at his own 46, Stroud found Collins for 21 yards, +2.73 EPA and 11.9 points of win probability; Collins then caught 11 to the 9 and ran 5 to the 4. On second and 4 there with 3:59 left, Stroud threw short right for Xavier Hutchinson and Travis Hunter intercepted in the end zone, -6.02 EPA and 24.1 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Little tied it from 60. Tied 31-31 with 1:04 left, third and 2 at his own 40, Stroud hit Marks short right for 19 yards to the Jacksonville 41, +1.45 EPA and 15.1 points of win probability. Three runs later Fairbairn kicked from 49. Houston converted 5 of 11 third downs and scored 3 touchdowns on 15 red-zone snaps.

The one to watch next: a pass defense that allowed +0.28 a play here, against +0.01 through Week 5, and whether a run game that played at -0.03 a play, against -0.12 through Week 5, keeps climbing toward zero.

That's your Texans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Texans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._