Buccaneers 19, Steelers 26 — Week 6: Up 16-3, Then a Pick to the 3

Tampa Bay lost 26-19 to Pittsburgh in overtime at home on Sunday, and a 16-3 lead after three quarters went down with the passing game. The Buccaneers led 13-3 at halftime and 16-3 after Chase McLaughlin's third field goal, and he made all four he tried. The offense never scored a second touchdown. Jamel Dean's interception with 1:46 left set up Pittsburgh's go-ahead kick, McLaughlin tied it from 53 with 13 seconds left, and Germie Bernard's 6-yard catch won it in overtime. Tampa Bay turned it over twice and took it away once, a margin of -1.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how badly. Its 48 pass plays were worth -21.8 EPA, -0.45 a play against -0.19 through Week 5, and only 27.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jalon Daniels completed 22 of 43 for 164 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked five times. Emeka Egbuka drew 16 targets and caught 7 for 48, including the 2-yard touchdown on the second quarter's first snap, set up by a 22-yard pass-interference penalty on Daylen Everette. Both interceptions were thrown his way. Everette's came on third and 7 at the Tampa Bay 32 early in the fourth, up 16-10, and Pittsburgh turned it into a field goal. Ted Hurst III caught 3 for 40.

The run game sat just under its own standard, and success rate shows it: 36% of 25 rush plays succeeded, worth -0.4 EPA, -0.02 a play against +0.04 through Week 5, for 102 yards. Bucky Irving ran 19 times for 46. After A'Shawn Robinson's first-quarter interception, Irving lost 5 on first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 27, and the drive ended in a field goal; up 13-3 in the third, he lost 2 on first and 10 at the 13, and that one did too. Daniels ran 4 times for 39, and his 10-yard scramble on fourth and 9 in overtime was worth +2.1 EPA and 21.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The pass defense nearly won it, and total EPA allowed shows how far it beat its standard: Pittsburgh's 52 pass plays were worth -13.8 EPA, -0.26 a play against 0.00 allowed through Week 5; on defense, a negative number is good. Aaron Rodgers completed 33 of 49 for 253 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked five times, twice by David Walker and once each by Al-Quadin Muhammad, Rueben Bain Jr. and Keionte Scott. Robinson intercepted a throw for Darnell Washington on first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 36 in the first quarter. The snap that mattered came with 2:47 left, up 16-13: third and 4 at the Tampa Bay 31, Walker sacked Rodgers at the 40 for a 9-yard loss, -2.8 EPA and 15.4 points of win probability. It pushed Chris Boswell back to 58 yards, and he made it. The leak: DK Metcalf caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 and Bernard 11 of 12 for 87.

The run defense came in under its own standard, and EPA per play measures the gap: Pittsburgh's 21 rush plays were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.04 a play, against -0.14 allowed through Week 5; here, too, negative is good. They gained 90 yards, and 38.1% succeeded. Jaylen Warren ran 14 times for 50, with a 16-yarder on second and 8 in the first, and Rico Dowdle 7 for 40. Yaya Diaby dropped Warren for a 3-yard loss to open overtime, -1.3 EPA, before Metcalf converted the third and 13 behind it.

The game turned with 1:46 left in regulation, tied 16-16. On second and 10 at the Tampa Bay 37, Daniels threw short right for Egbuka, and Dean intercepted at the 43 and returned it 40 yards to the 3, where Daniels pushed him out. That snap was worth -6.9 EPA and 45 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The defense held at the 1, Jacob Parrish on the incomplete third-and-1 throw to Metcalf, and Boswell kicked from 20. Daniels hit Hurst for 22, then for 13 on third and 15 after Nick Herbig's sack, and McLaughlin tied it. In overtime Pittsburgh took the kickoff and scored. Tampa Bay converted fourth and 9 and reached midfield, and Jalen Ramsey sacked Daniels on fourth and 8 to end it. The offense converted 6 of 19 third downs, scored 1 touchdown on 6 red-zone snaps, and turned 14 drives into a touchdown, four field goals, two turnovers and five three-and-outs.

The one to watch next: whether the passing game gets back toward its -0.19 a play after -0.45 here, and whether drives that reach field-goal range start ending in touchdowns after four kicks and one score.

That's your Buccaneers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._