Josh Allen — Week 8: 289 Yards and a Goal-Line Score

Josh Allen had his biggest passing-yard total since Week 1 against the Ravens, and most of its value came after halftime: 21 of 34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, plus 7 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown in a 36-10 win. Over 38 dropbacks he was worth +7.4 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.20 per dropback.

The throw that settled it came up 16-10 with 9:44 left in the third, one drive after Baltimore's field goal. First and 10 at his own 46, he went deep over the middle to DJ Moore for 49 yards to the Baltimore 5: +2.9 EPA and 6.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. James Cook scored two snaps later. In the fourth he went deep left to Dalton Kincaid for 40 yards on first and 20, then hit Moore short left for an 11-yard touchdown on third and 8, +3.2 EPA, and later found Kincaid for 23 yards and the last score.

The first half cost him. Up 10-0 in the first quarter, first and 10 at his own 16, he threw short over the middle for Jackson Hawes and defensive tackle Broderick Washington intercepted at the 17, -5.5 EPA; Derrick Henry scored two runs later. With 2:00 left in the half, Moore's 18-yard catch ended in a fumble at the Baltimore 18. On the ground he gave the Bills their first points, stopped at the 1 on third and 1 and then going up the middle on fourth.

It was below his season rate. Through Week 7 he was at +0.37 per dropback, +74.2 EPA on 203 dropbacks, with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, of +5.1; here it was -1.4. The rushing touchdown was his ninth of the season.

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_Data via nflverse._