Josh Allen — Week 5: 121 Rushing Yards on 10 Carries

Josh Allen smashed the Rams with his legs and made 19 throws count: 12 completions, 210 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, plus 10 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown. He was worth +20.1 expected points added (EPA) on 29 dropbacks, +0.69 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.

The throw that defined his night came in overtime. Tied 34-34 with 8:48 left, second and 16 at the Buffalo 21, he threw short over the middle to Khalil Shakir, who ran to the Los Angeles 22 for 57 yards: +4.5 EPA and +23.4 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. James Cook fumbled on the next snap, so Allen carried the final possession himself: a 19-yard scramble on second and 7 to the Los Angeles 40, then 13 yards around left end to the 27.

The Bills' last drive of regulation ran through him too. At 27-27 with 2:00 left, second and 17 at the Los Angeles 26, he scrambled 21 yards to the 5, and Cook scored two plays later.

His one mistake was a deep throw before halftime that Jaylen Watson intercepted: -10.9 points of win probability.

The rate more than doubled his baseline. Weeks 1 through 4 brought +0.27 EPA per dropback on 138 dropbacks and 118 rushing yards on 33 carries; this game alone produced 121. His 19 attempts were a season low, and his completion percentage over expected (CPOE), completions against what each throw's difficulty predicted, was -1.4, after +6.0 through Week 4.

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_Data via nflverse._