Dalton Kincaid — Week 3: Twenty-Four Yards, Then a Fumble
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Kincaid caught 2 of 3 targets for 38 yards, and lost a fumble at the end of the longer one: 24 yards on third and 8 to the Chargers 24, down 13–10 with 4:00 left in the third, recovered by the Chargers at the 17. Three targets were down from 6 and 8 with DJ Moore back at 10, in a 24–16 win over the Chargers.
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13 to 10, Chargers, four minutes left in the third quarter, third and eight at the Chargers 48. Josh Allen threw short middle to Dalton Kincaid, who caught it and got to the Chargers 24, 24 yards and past the line to gain. The ball came out on the tackle, and the Chargers recovered it at the 17. −1.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −6.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it.
The line: three targets, two catches, 38 yards, one first down, one fumble lost, −1.7 expected points on the targets. The other catch was 14 yards over the middle on second and five at the Buffalo 40 in the second quarter, down 10, on the drive that ended in Buffalo's first field goal. The incompletion was deep middle on second and nine in the first quarter. Two targets before halftime, one after, none in the fourth quarter.
Three targets tied him with Khalil Shakir, behind DJ Moore's 10 and Ty Johnson's four. Allen threw 26 times, so that is three of 26, after eight of 31 in Week 2 when Moore left early.
Back in June this show made no call on Kincaid: the career year had leaned on efficiency, and DJ Moore's arrival was expected to cap the ceiling. Week 1 contradicted that, six targets for a hundred 30 with Moore thrown to eight times. Week 2 was eight for 95 and the team lead, with Moore gone before halftime. Sunday, the first full game since Week 1 with Moore on the field, Kincaid had three and Moore had 10. Three games: 17 targets, 14 catches, 263 yards. This is the week that matched the June read. Three games settle little. Buffalo is home to the Patriots on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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