Success rate
Success rate is the share of plays that gained positive expected points — roughly, plays that kept the offense ahead of the chains. Drake Maye of the Patriots led 2025 quarterbacks at 55.3%.
A play is a success if it added expected points, which in practice means about 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second, and everything needed on third or fourth. Success rate counts how often that happened. It ignores how big the gains were.
Quarterback EPA per Dropback — 2025 leaders
| # | Player | DB | EPA/DB | Success% | Total EPA | Scr% | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | 602 | 0.32 | 55.3% | 191.3 | 10.3% | |
| 2 | Jordan Love | 485 | 0.26 | 50.5% | 127.2 | 5.0% | |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | 624 | 0.22 | 52.7% | 139.2 | 1.1% | |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | 316 | 0.20 | 53.2% | 63.8 | 5.7% | |
| 5 | Jared Goff | 619 | 0.18 | 48.6% | 109.4 | 0.8% | |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | 657 | 0.17 | 48.7% | 113.9 | 4.0% | |
| 7 | Patrick Mahomes | 589 | 0.17 | 49.9% | 99.2 | 8.8% | |
| 8 | Josh Allen | 554 | 0.16 | 48.4% | 89.3 | 8.7% | |
| 9 | Daniel Jones | 431 | 0.15 | 50.3% | 65.1 | 5.1% | |
| 10 | Sam Darnold | 516 | 0.13 | 52.5% | 69.2 | 2.7% |
Why it matters
Two offenses can average the same yards per play, one through steady conversions and one through a few long gains between failures. Success rate tells them apart, and the steady version sustains drives, which is what generates the red-zone trips fantasy scoring depends on. Drake Maye led 2025 at 55.3%, with Brock Purdy of the 49ers second at 53.2%. Where success rate and expected points added disagree on a passer, one is measuring consistency and the other magnitude.
The counter
Success rate is blind to explosive plays, which is exactly where fantasy scoring concentrates.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
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