Success rate
Success rate is the share of plays that gained positive expected points — roughly, plays that kept the offense ahead of the chains. Drake Maye of the Patriots led 2025 quarterbacks at 55.3%.
A play is a success if it added expected points, which in practice means about 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second, and everything needed on third or fourth. Success rate counts how often that happened. It ignores how big the gains were.
Quarterback EPA per Dropback — 2026 leaders
| # | Player | DB | EPA/DB | Success% | Total EPA | Scr% | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 111 | 0.38 | 57.7% | 41.6 | 9.0% | Read |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | 191 | 0.36 | 54.5% | 69.3 | 7.8% | Read |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 203 | 0.33 | 47.8% | 67.2 | 8.4% | Read |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | 150 | 0.32 | 51.3% | 47.6 | 9.3% | Read |
| 5 | Jared Goff | 207 | 0.28 | 50.2% | 58.5 | 2.4% | Read |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence | 201 | 0.27 | 50.2% | 54.0 | 3.5% | Read |
| 7 | Drake Maye | 250 | 0.22 | 52.4% | 54.3 | 9.2% | Read |
| 8 | Bryce Young | 218 | 0.20 | 45.0% | 43.6 | 2.3% | Read |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | 175 | 0.18 | 50.3% | 31.6 | 5.7% | Read |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | 224 | 0.18 | 48.7% | 40.2 | 1.3% | Read |
Why it matters
Two offenses can average the same yards per play, one through steady conversions and one through a few long gains between failures. Success rate tells them apart, and the steady version sustains drives, which is what generates the red-zone trips fantasy scoring depends on. Drake Maye led 2025 at 55.3%, with Brock Purdy of the 49ers second at 53.2%. Where success rate and expected points added disagree on a passer, one is measuring consistency and the other magnitude.
The counter
Success rate is blind to explosive plays, which is exactly where fantasy scoring concentrates.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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