Success rate
Success rate is the share of plays that gained positive expected points — roughly, plays that kept the offense ahead of the chains. Drake Maye of the Patriots led 2025 quarterbacks at 55.2%.
A play is a success if it added expected points, which in practice means about 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second, and everything needed on third or fourth. Success rate counts how often that happened. It ignores how big the gains were.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Player | DB | EPA/DB | Success% | EPA/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 601 | 0.32 | 55.2% | 10.79 |
| 2 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 485 | 0.26 | 50.5% | 8.73 |
| 3 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 624 | 0.22 | 52.7% | 7.36 |
| 4 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 316 | 0.20 | 53.2% | 8.40 |
| 5 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 619 | 0.18 | 48.6% | 5.80 |
| 6 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 656 | 0.17 | 48.6% | 6.25 |
| 7 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 589 | 0.17 | 49.9% | 7.17 |
| 8 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 554 | 0.16 | 48.4% | 6.83 |
| 9 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 431 | 0.15 | 50.3% | 5.81 |
| 10 | Sam DarnoldQB · SEA | 516 | 0.13 | 52.5% | 3.70 |
See the full quarterback epa per dropback leaderboard — Drake Maye leads.
Why it matters
Two offenses can average the same yards per play, one through steady conversions and one through a few long gains between failures. Success rate tells them apart, and the steady version sustains drives, which is what generates the red-zone trips fantasy scoring depends on. Drake Maye led 2025 at 55.2%, with Brock Purdy of the 49ers second at 53.2%. Where success rate and expected points added disagree on a passer, one is measuring consistency and the other magnitude.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
Success rate is blind to explosive plays, which is exactly where fantasy scoring concentrates.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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