Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence was an MVP finalist last season — the number-four fantasy quarterback in total points, QB1 on a per-game basis down the stretch. He's the ninth quarterback off the board. That's a steep discount on a career year. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was the breakout the draft slot always promised: nineteen-nine a game, QB5 per game and QB4 in total, on four thousand passing yards, twenty-nine touchdowns, twelve picks, plus three hundred fifty-nine rushing yards and nine rushing scores in Liam Coen's first year. The signature was a five-touchdown, forty-four point eruption against the Jets in Week 15. Down the second-half stretch he was the QB1, period.

The arc is a player finally arriving: eleven-seven, seventeen-four, sixteen-four, fourteen-five — and then a career-best nineteen-nine. The Coen system unlocked him, and the comfort should only grow in year two.

Now the honest accounting, because we don't oversell. His rushing share, twenty-seven percent, puts him in the rushing-floor tier — the profile our research says repeats top-six at sixty-one percent versus twenty-four for pocket passers — which is the structural reason the floor is real. But two cautions: nine rushing touchdowns is a number that regresses, and his accuracy was actually mediocre, a completion percentage over expected near the bottom of the league. So this wasn't an efficiency masterpiece; it was a volume-and-rushing-driven QB4 finish. The point is, even granting both caveats, a QB4 finish with a rushing floor priced at QB9 is too cheap.

The situation, per the reports, is the bull case with hardware attached: Lawrence was an MVP finalist and Comeback Player of the Year finalist on a thirteen-and-four division winner, it's year two in Coen's system, and Coen's line — "there's so much room to continue to improve" — now reads like a threat to the league rather than a coach covering for his guy. The June color backs it: the team site counted fewer than five interceptions across the entire offseason program. The one soft spot in the supporting cast is Travis Hunter's knee, which cost him the spring. Quarterback and scheme continuity is exactly what carries a breakout forward.

The price: pick eighty-one, the ninth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. He finished QB4 in total with a genuine rushing floor and an ascending offense, and he's priced QB9. The counter: the nine rushing scores regress, the accuracy needs to catch up to the production, and you can wait on quarterback. But the gap between a QB4 finish and a QB9 price is the value, and the floor underneath it is the safe kind.

September watch: the rushing volume — the floor; and whether the accuracy climbs in year two of the system, the thing that would make him elite rather than merely underpriced. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.