Derrick Henry

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• Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

  Derrick Henry Camp Update — August 23: The Blocking Took the Week's Losses

  Derrick Henry got his first live look at a real defense in the Vikings joint practices and mostly watched his blocking lose the week — a stuffed run per the Banner, one would-be big gain per Russell Street Report, and a season-ending injury to a center in the mix.

• Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

  Derrick Henry Camp Update — August 16: The New Scheme Attacks the Edge

  Baltimore's new offense is redrawing the run game around Derrick Henry with designed perimeter runs and more catches out of the backfield. That lands directly on both things our June preview told you to watch.

• 2026 PreviewJun 13, 2026

  Derrick Henry 2026 Season Preview — the touchdowns and the birthday

  Henry finished as RB7 with 272 half-PPR points across 17 games, averaging 16 per game at age 32. That production leaned heavily on touchdowns, which are the least repeatable part of any running back's profile. The volume that survived — 17 games played and 88.2% availability over the prior five seasons — is the durable layer, but the scoring rate that inflated his finish is the part history says fades.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Derrick Henry just ran for 16 touchdowns and finished as a top-seven back at age 31. And we're telling you to let someone else draft him in the second round. Not because he's washed — he isn't — but because the price is paying for the two things 10 years of data say evaporate fastest. The Muffed 2026 preview.

  The season was a monster, and we'll say so plainly: 307 carries for 15 95, 16 rushing touchdowns — second in the NFL — on the league's number-one rushing offense by EPA. And the efficiency was absurd for his age: +340 rushing yards over expected, third among all qualified backs, facing a stacked box on 39 percent of his runs. The signature was Week 17 against Green Bay — 216 yards and four touchdowns, a 46 point fantasy explosion. The talent is emphatically still there.

  But the arc is where the second-round price gets nervous. This is year 10. Henry's points-per-game line reads like a heartbeat: 23, 17-nine, 13-seven, 19-two, 16. He bounces because his fantasy value is built on touchdowns, and touchdowns are the most volatile thing in football. Which brings us to the two flags.

  Flag one: his touchdown share is 34.3 percent — the highest of any back we cover, well into the top quartile where our fade rule lives. Backs that touchdown-dependent decline three points a game the following season, in both halves of the decade. Flag two: he's a career-year-10 running back, and our aging rule docks that group another point-plus. Stack them and you take 16 down toward 12 — RB2 range, at an RB12 price. The volume and efficiency are real; the scoring is the rented part, and you're renting at peak.

  The situation, per the reports, doesn't change the math, even after a scare: Baltimore's offense has real turnover — head coach John Harbaugh left for the Giants, and Baltimore's new staff under HC Jesse Minter and OC Declan Doyle inherits a workhorse who's signed through 2027. Henry banged knees with a teammate at OTAs in May and got back up within minutes; no real injury, just a jolt. High workload on a 32-year-old with a top-quartile touchdown rate is exactly the profile the fade rule was built to flag — volume doesn't save you from age and touchdown regression, it just delivers more of the carries that don't score.

  The price: pick 22, the twelfth back. Verdict: CALL — overpriced. The honest counter, and it's the best one we'll give all batch: his three-rank rushing-yards-over-expected says he is still beating his blocking like a prime back, and he has made fools of aging columns for three straight years. If anyone breaks the curve again, it's him. We're not betting he falls off a cliff — we're betting 16 touchdowns at age 32 is the wrong thing to pay second-round money for.

  Watch in September: the goal-line touchdown rate — 16 scores is the number that has to repeat for the price to work, and it's the least likely to; and the snap count in obvious passing situations, where a 32-year-old's role tends to shrink first. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.

• 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

  Derrick Henry 2025 Season in Review

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  Derrick Henry finished 2025 as the number 8 running back in total PPR scoring and the number 8 running back in PPR per game — which, depending on where you drafted him, was either exactly the return you wanted or a strangely volatile ride for a back posting these counting numbers. The headline is simple: Henry was a true workhorse on a Ravens offense that ran the ball better than anyone in football. He carried it 307 times for 1,595 yards and found the end zone 16 times — the second-most rushing scores in the league. The catch: Baltimore went 8 and 9, missed the playoffs, and Henry's weekly fantasy output reflected the bumpiness of that team's year more than you'd expect from a back averaging 5.2 a pop.

  Now let's dig into the numbers, because they explain both the ceiling and the frustration. Volume was elite — 307 carries across 17 games, roughly 18 a week, behind a Baltimore rushing attack that finished first in the league in rushing expected points added at plus 42.2 and second in yards per carry at 5.3. Efficiency was the real story. Henry's rushing yards over expected came in at plus 340.1 on the year, plus 1.1 per attempt, third among qualified backs — yards the blocking and box counts didn't promise him, with eight or more defenders in the box on 39 percent of his carries. The passing game wasn't part of his profile: 15 catches on 21 targets for 150 yards, zero receiving touchdowns, a target share around 5 percent. And the consistency? Henry averaged 16.4 PPR per game, but the week-to-week ride was boom-or-bust — a 2.3-point dud against Cleveland in Week 2, single digits against the Chiefs and Texans, then 45.6 in Week 17 against Green Bay on 36 carries for 216 yards and four scores. He cleared 20 PPR in five games and was held under 12 in seven. A boom-or-bust shape hiding inside workhorse usage — driven almost entirely by whether Baltimore was playing from ahead or chasing a blowout.

  The play that captures the season comes from that Week 17 explosion in Green Bay. Fourth quarter, two minutes left, Ravens up 34 to 24, first and 10 at the Packers' 25. Henry took it left end and walked in untouched — 25-yard touchdown, the exclamation point on a 216-yard, four-score afternoon. That's the version that justified the draft cost: late-game, defense gassed, one-cut and gone. The problem was that version showed up about a third of the time. The rest of the season, you were riding the variance of a run-first offense that couldn't stay in enough games to keep feeding him.