Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2022 NFL leaders, updated Oct 10, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +11.3, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2022 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2022 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +11.3 | 65.0% | 62.7% | 566 | Read |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | +8.5 | 65.1% | 63.6% | 439 | Read |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | +6.5 | 59.8% | 59.6% | 537 | Read |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | +4.6 | 64.0% | 66.0% | 603 | Read |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4.2 | 58.5% | 67.7% | 550 | Read |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | +3.0 | 60.4% | 64.6% | 480 | Read |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | +2.4 | 57.9% | 62.3% | 515 | Read |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.3 | 59.6% | 60.0% | 507 | Read |
| 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +0.5 | 55.5% | 58.9% | 503 | Read |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | -0.6 | 58.3% | 52.5% | 501 | Read |
| 11 | New England Patriots | -0.7 | 56.4% | 59.1% | 534 | Read |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.2 | 57.0% | 62.4% | 558 | Read |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | -1.3 | 54.5% | 56.6% | 503 | Read |
| 14 | Denver Broncos | -1.6 | 54.2% | 59.3% | 600 | Read |
| 15 | Houston Texans | -1.8 | 50.8% | 61.3% | 537 | Read |
| 16 | New York Jets | -2.7 | 56.9% | 62.9% | 543 | Read |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.7 | 50.2% | 55.4% | 606 | Read |
| 18 | Green Bay Packers | -3.0 | 55.3% | 57.4% | 506 | Read |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | -3.0 | 54.6% | 59.6% | 524 | Read |
| 20 | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.3 | 53.1% | 59.5% | 516 | Read |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 | 53.5% | 60.6% | 520 | Read |
| 22 | San Francisco 49ers | -4.1 | 52.8% | 52.7% | 494 | Read |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | -4.3 | 51.1% | 50.7% | 554 | Read |
| 24 | New York Giants | -4.8 | 51.9% | 52.8% | 518 | Read |
| 25 | Dallas Cowboys | -5.7 | 49.0% | 53.0% | 586 | Read |
| 26 | New Orleans Saints | -6.5 | 47.6% | 54.7% | 496 | Read |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | -6.8 | 50.5% | 52.8% | 574 | Read |
| 28 | Washington Commanders | -7.3 | 45.3% | 53.5% | 569 | Read |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | -8.1 | 48.6% | 50.6% | 479 | Read |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -10.2 | 49.4% | 51.6% | 516 | Read |
| 31 | Atlanta Falcons | -13.2 | 44.8% | 45.0% | 484 | Read |
| 32 | Chicago Bears | -13.6 | 43.0% | 44.6% | 523 | Read |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
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