Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2020 NFL leaders, updated Nov 12, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +9.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2020 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2020 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +9.9 | 64.2% | 63.0% | 548 | Read |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | +9.8 | 61.9% | 62.0% | 483 | Read |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +7.5 | 63.4% | 65.7% | 495 | Read |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6.6 | 62.3% | 65.2% | 398 | Read |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | +6.5 | 59.3% | 60.8% | 494 | Read |
| 6 | Houston Texans | +5.5 | 59.9% | 64.2% | 454 | Read |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | +3.4 | 58.5% | 58.9% | 458 | Read |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | +3.0 | 58.1% | 56.2% | 449 | Read |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | +1.5 | 56.5% | 59.7% | 448 | Read |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | +1.1 | 58.9% | 62.8% | 475 | Read |
| 11 | Washington Commanders | +0.9 | 57.0% | 62.8% | 428 | Read |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | +0.8 | 59.0% | 60.8% | 476 | Read |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | +0.6 | 54.5% | 62.1% | 536 | Read |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +0.5 | 54.8% | 66.4% | 454 | Read |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | +0.4 | 55.6% | 62.9% | 444 | Read |
| 16 | New York Giants | -0.1 | 53.6% | 59.9% | 494 | Read |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | -0.3 | 53.8% | 63.1% | 433 | Read |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | -0.6 | 57.4% | 56.0% | 542 | Read |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | -0.6 | 59.0% | 57.4% | 527 | Read |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.3 | 56.5% | 59.1% | 529 | Read |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | -1.5 | 53.1% | 61.4% | 471 | Read |
| 22 | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.9 | 55.1% | 56.2% | 595 | Read |
| 23 | Cleveland Browns | -2.9 | 54.1% | 52.1% | 466 | Read |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | -3.3 | 52.2% | 53.7% | 485 | Read |
| 25 | New York Jets | -3.4 | 51.2% | 57.6% | 420 | Read |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.6 | 54.9% | 56.6% | 481 | Read |
| 27 | Minnesota Vikings | -4.3 | 51.4% | 54.6% | 514 | Read |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.0 | 50.1% | 58.8% | 501 | Read |
| 29 | Denver Broncos | -5.2 | 52.8% | 57.9% | 475 | Read |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -8.9 | 47.3% | 50.1% | 423 | Read |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens | -10.1 | 42.2% | 44.5% | 424 | Read |
| 32 | New England Patriots | -11.0 | 45.9% | 49.2% | 475 | Read |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
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