Tennessee Titans pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Titans weekly

First and goal at the Baltimore eight, ten twenty left in the second quarter, Tennessee down fourteen to seven. Tony Pollard ran for three, then two, then one. On fourth and two at the two the Titans snapped it directly to Pollard, he went at right guard, and Madubuike stopped him for no gain. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, the stop cost the Titans three point one. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost six points. Baltimore took over at its own two and went ninety-eight yards for a touchdown. The Titans lost twenty-four to eighteen at Baltimore on Sunday and are oh and four. They trailed twenty-four to seven at halftime, held the Ravens scoreless after it, and were within six with seventy-two seconds left before the onside kick went to Baltimore.