Kansas City Chiefs pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Chiefs weekly

Nineteen to seventeen, Raiders, three thirty-five left in the game, third and five at the Kansas City forty. The Chiefs' chance of winning at that snap was thirty-three percent. Patrick Mahomes threw deep left for Tyquan Thornton, thirty-one yards in the air, and Thornton carried it twenty-four more to the Las Vegas five. A Raiders unnecessary-roughness penalty moved it to the two. Plus five point two expected points added — expected points added being what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — and thirty-five points of win probability, each team's chance of winning at that moment. It was the biggest win-probability swing of the game. Kenneth Walker scored from the two, the two-point try failed, and on the kickoff Bassa forced a fumble on the return and Cochrane recovered it at the Las Vegas twenty-two. Walker ran twenty-two yards for a touchdown on the next snap. Thirty to nineteen, and the Chiefs' chance had gone from thirty-three percent to ninety-seven in thirty-three seconds of game clock. Las Vegas scored again and converted the two-point try, Xavier Worthy fielded the onside kick, and the Raiders' last drive ended with Nwankpa intercepting Kirk Cousins at the Kansas City thirty-six with ten seconds left. It was the Chiefs' fourth straight win to open the season.