New England Patriots pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Patriots weekly

Third and five at the Buffalo twenty-three, a minute fifty-five left, New England down twenty-six to twenty-one. Two and a half minutes earlier Keon Coleman had caught a thirty-four-yard touchdown, and the Patriots had started at their own twenty-seven. Drake Maye threw deep right for Efton Chism, and Chism caught it in the end zone. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap was worth nineteen points. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, plus three point six. Maye found Rhamondre Stevenson for the two-point conversion, another ten and a half points of win probability, and on Buffalo's fourth snap after the kickoff Woodson intercepted Josh Allen at the New England nineteen. Patriots twenty-nine, Bills twenty-six, in Buffalo, against a team that had not lost. New England is two and two.