Seattle Seahawks pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Seahawks weekly

Second and fifteen at the Washington forty-nine, four oh nine left in the fourth quarter, Seattle down twenty-seven to twenty-four. Three snaps earlier a twenty-six-yard completion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba had put the Seahawks in Washington territory; an illegal formation penalty pushed them back to the forty-nine and an incompletion followed. Sam Darnold threw short middle for AJ Barner, and Kain Medrano intercepted at the fifty and ran it back fifty yards for a touchdown. Twenty-nine points of win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — gone on one snap, the biggest swing of the game in either direction. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was minus eight point seven. Washington missed the extra point, and Seattle went sixty-eight yards in five plays to make it thirty-three to thirty-one with two fifty-one left. It never got the ball back. Seattle lost thirty-three to thirty-one in Washington, did not lead at any point, and by the win probability model never rose above forty-nine percent.