Atlanta Falcons pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Falcons weekly

First and ten at the Atlanta forty, three oh six left in the first quarter, down seven to nothing. Bijan Robinson took the handoff around left end and went fifty-five yards to the Green Bay five. Nine points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus three point seven. It also put the Falcons inside an opponent's twenty for the first time all season: through two games Atlanta had not run an offensive play there once. Two plays later Robinson scored from the three. Atlanta beat the Packers thirty-five to fourteen at Lambeau Field on Thursday night, took the lead with four fifty-three left in the first half and never gave it back, and by the win probability model never dipped below twenty-one percent.