Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rate over expected, 2026
-2.1
17th of 32 in the NFL
- -1.9
- On 159 neutral-script plays through Week 5
Do the Buccaneers pass more than expected?
The Buccaneers have a pass rate over expected of -2.1 through Week 5, 17th in the NFL — above zero means they throw more often than the game situation calls for.
Week by week
| Through | PROE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | +2.6 | 8th |
| Week 2 | +0.7 | 11th |
| Week 3 | 0.0 | 11th |
| Week 4 | -1.5 | 16th |
| Week 5 | -2.1 | 17th |
Last season
Up from -2.8 in 2025, which ranked 18th of 32.
From the Buccaneers weekly
Fourth and eleven at the Green Bay forty-seven, a minute thirty-four left, Tampa Bay down seventeen to fourteen. Jalon Daniels threw short middle for Ted Hurst, Nixon was ruled to have intercepted it, and replay made it an incompletion, which changed nothing that mattered. Turnover on downs, and Jordan Love knelt three times. By win probability, the chance of winning the game after the snap against before it, that throw cost the Buccaneers twenty points. Tampa Bay lost seventeen to fourteen at Raymond James Stadium and is oh and four, by six, four, seven and now three points. Daniels, who had thrown three passes all season before Sunday, threw every Tampa Bay pass.
Read the Week 4 note →Which teams pass the most over expected in 2026?
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.6), Carolina Panthers (+4.2), then Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.1) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Pass Rate Over Expected board.
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