2026 season · Pass Rate Over Expected

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rate over expected, 2026

-2.1

17th of 32 in the NFL

League median
-1.9
Sample
On 159 neutral-script plays through Week 5

Do the Buccaneers pass more than expected?

The Buccaneers have a pass rate over expected of -2.1 through Week 5, 17th in the NFL — above zero means they throw more often than the game situation calls for.

Week by week

Season to date after each week — the pass rate over expected and rank as the board stood once that week was filed, not the single week’s own figure.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rate over expected after each week of 2026
ThroughPROERank
Week 1+2.68th
Week 2+0.711th
Week 30.011th
Week 4-1.516th
Week 5-2.117th

Last season

Up from -2.8 in 2025, which ranked 18th of 32.

From the Buccaneers weekly

Fourth and eleven at the Green Bay forty-seven, a minute thirty-four left, Tampa Bay down seventeen to fourteen. Jalon Daniels threw short middle for Ted Hurst, Nixon was ruled to have intercepted it, and replay made it an incompletion, which changed nothing that mattered. Turnover on downs, and Jordan Love knelt three times. By win probability, the chance of winning the game after the snap against before it, that throw cost the Buccaneers twenty points. Tampa Bay lost seventeen to fourteen at Raymond James Stadium and is oh and four, by six, four, seven and now three points. Daniels, who had thrown three passes all season before Sunday, threw every Tampa Bay pass.

Read the Week 4 note →

Which teams pass the most over expected in 2026?

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.6), Carolina Panthers (+4.2), then Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.1) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Pass Rate Over Expected board.

More on this team: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers page.

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