Washington Commanders pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Commanders weekly

Third and nine at the Washington thirty-four, one fifty-five left, Washington up thirty-three to thirty-one and Seattle holding all three of its timeouts. Rachaad White went around right end for nineteen yards to the Seattle forty-seven — eight and a half points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, and the only Washington run of the day to gain ten yards or more. Seattle spent its timeouts. On third and seven at the Seattle forty-four with one thirty-six left, Marcus Mariota ran around right end for nine, and Washington knelt. The Commanders beat the Seahawks thirty-three to thirty-one at home for their first win of the season, never trailed, and by the win probability model never dropped below fifty-one percent. They did it with two hundred sixty total yards, the fifth-fewest of the twenty-eight teams that have played so far this week, and the sixth-most points.