Commanders 24, Giants 21 — Week 10: Diggs Wins It at 1:05

Washington won 24-21 at the Giants on Thursday night and moved to 3-5-1. It trailed 21-17 with 8:13 left, threw interceptions on its next two possessions, and won it on the third: Stefon Diggs caught a short throw over the middle on third and 4 and ran it in from 32 yards with 1:05 left. 11 drives produced three touchdowns, a field goal, two interceptions, a turnover on downs and three three-and-outs.

The passing game spread the ball and mostly worked, and success rate, the share of plays that gained what the situation asked for, leads the case: 58.8% of 34 pass plays succeeded. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +2.0, +0.06 a play against -0.03 through Week 9. Jayden Daniels completed 23 of 33 for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns, his most this season, to three different receivers: Ben Sinnott, 4 of 4 for 42; Antonio Williams, 2 of 2 for 42; and Diggs, 6 of 10 for 83. He also threw his first two interceptions of the season, after none in 180 attempts through Week 9, both on throws for Chig Okonkwo.

The run game ran to its average, and EPA per play shows it: 30 rush plays worth -0.03 apiece against -0.04 through Week 9, half of them successful, for 107 yards. Rachaad White carried 11 times for 47, Austin Ekeler 9 times for 26, and Daniels ran 8 times for 30. White's two 7-yard runs, starting with 1:11 left in the half, moved the ball from the New York 15 to the 1. Daniels was stopped there on first down, and on third and 1 with 9 seconds left he hit Sinnott for the touchdown and a 10-7 halftime lead.

The pass defense lost the second half, and EPA per play allowed splits it: the Giants' 20 pass plays before the break were worth -3.8, their 17 after it +7.1. On defense a big negative number is good. For the game it was +0.09 a play allowed against +0.02 through Week 9, and J.J. McCarthy threw for 293 yards. Isaiah Likely caught 9 of 11 for 127, the last a 66-yard touchdown on third and 7 that put New York up 21-17. The takeaways kept it close. Up 17-14 late in the third, second and 12 at the Washington 19, Frankie Luvu forced a Malik Nabers fumble that Jeremy Reaves recovered at the 20, -4.5 EPA for the Giants. Rasul Douglas intercepted the Giants' last throw at the 11.

The run defense was beaten early and held late, and total EPA allowed tells the first part: the Giants' 26 rush plays were worth +2.7, +0.10 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 9. Cam Skattebo scored twice. Sonny Styles made the late stops. Down 21-17 with 3:56 left, third and 1 at the New York 11, Styles and Deatrich Wise stopped Jameis Winston up the middle, and Washington's challenge took the first down away. On the next possession, third and 3 at the Washington 39 with 2:00 left, Styles dropped McCarthy for a 2-yard loss, and the punt went 12 yards.

The game turned on the drive that followed. Down 21-17 at its own 29 with 1:46 left, Washington got 33 yards on the first snap, a pass interference flag on Deonte Banks against Treylon Burks. Daniels scrambled for 1 and found Ekeler for 5, and on third and 4 at the New York 32 he threw short over the middle to Diggs, who made the last 26 yards after the catch: +4.2 EPA and 37.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. The Giants recovered a fumble on the kickoff and reached the Washington 48 before Douglas's interception.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game worth -7.1 EPA on 26 second-half pass plays against the Rams could carry its first-half form through four quarters. Not yet: 15 pass plays before the break worth +5.7, 19 after it worth -3.7, and the two throws on the winning drive accounted for +4.6 of that. The one to watch next: whether Daniels's first two interceptions, both for Okonkwo in the fourth quarter, were a one-night lapse after 180 attempts without one.

That's your Commanders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Commanders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._