Detroit Lions pass rate over expected, 2026
+0.6
11th of 32 in the NFL
- -1.9
- On 108 neutral-script plays through Week 5
Do the Lions pass more than expected?
The Lions have a pass rate over expected of +0.6 through Week 5, 11th in the NFL — above zero means they throw more often than the game situation calls for.
Week by week
| Through | PROE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | -2.4 | 15th |
| Week 2 | -1.7 | 15th |
| Week 3 | -0.1 | 13th |
| Week 4 | +0.6 | 11th |
| Week 5 | +0.6 | 11th |
Last season
Up from -4.3 in 2025, which ranked 26th of 32.
From the Lions weekly
First and ten at the Carolina fifteen, seven nineteen left in the game, down thirty-two to nineteen. An incompletion to Sam LaPorta, two more to Amon-Ra St. Brown, a delay of game and a false start later, it was fourth and twenty at the twenty-five. On that snap Jared Goff threw short right to St. Brown for four, St. Brown pitched it back to Jahmyr Gibbs, and Gibbs got nine more to the twelve, seven yards short. The Lions scored on their next drive, LaPorta from eight yards with three forty-two left, and got the ball back at their own thirteen with two oh six left, down six, no timeouts. The last snap was fourth and thirteen at the ten, Goff to Isaac TeSlaa for twelve, a yard short. Carolina won thirty-two to twenty-six, and Detroit is two and two.
Read the Week 4 note →Which teams pass the most over expected in 2026?
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.6), Carolina Panthers (+4.2), then Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.1) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Pass Rate Over Expected board.
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.