Philadelphia Eagles pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Eagles weekly

Second and four at the Chicago fifteen, a little over eight minutes left in the second quarter, Eagles down seven to nothing. Saquon Barkley went around left end for fourteen yards and was pushed out at the one — first and goal, on a drive that had gone from Philadelphia's own three to the Chicago one in twelve plays. Barkley lost a yard. Barkley was stopped for no gain. And on third and two from the two, with Andy Dalton at quarterback — the play-by-play marks Jalen Hurts injured on a scramble earlier in the drive, a snap wiped out by offsetting penalties, and back for the last drive of the half — Dalton's throw over the middle for Dontayvion Wicks was intercepted in the end zone by Dillon Thieneman. Touchback. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — that throw cost Philadelphia five point six. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost thirteen points, the biggest swing of the night. The Eagles never led on Monday night in Chicago, the model never gave them a better chance than the forty-five percent it gave them at kickoff, and they lost twenty-seven to seven.