2026 season · Pass Rate Over Expected

Denver Broncos pass rate over expected, 2026

-2.4

19th of 32 in the NFL

League median
-1.9
Sample
On 118 neutral-script plays through Week 5

Do the Broncos pass more than expected?

The Broncos have a pass rate over expected of -2.4 through Week 5, 19th in the NFL — above zero means they throw more often than the game situation calls for.

Week by week

Season to date after each week — the pass rate over expected and rank as the board stood once that week was filed, not the single week’s own figure.

Denver Broncos pass rate over expected after each week of 2026
ThroughPROERank
Week 1+1.710th
Week 2+0.313th
Week 3-1.217th
Week 4-2.419th
Week 5-2.419th

Last season

Down from +2.1 in 2025, which ranked 6th of 32.

From the Broncos weekly

Three to three at halftime in San Francisco, and Denver's defense had the better of the half. Singleton stopped Brock Purdy's fourth-and-one sneak at the Denver thirty-four on the first snap of the second quarter, and Allen blocked a fifty-four-yard field goal as the half ran out. Then, tied with nine fifty-two left in the third, Marvin Mims fielded a sixty-one-yard 49ers punt at the Denver twenty-eight, got one yard, and Neal forced the fumble and recovered it for San Francisco. The 49ers scored nine snaps later, and the Broncos lost twenty-four to fourteen to fall to two and two. Neither offense turned it over, and neither quarterback was sacked.

Read the Week 4 note →

Which teams pass the most over expected in 2026?

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.6), Carolina Panthers (+4.2), then Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.1) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Pass Rate Over Expected board.

More on this team: the Denver Broncos page.

Use Muffed in your AI

Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.

Add to Claude · Set up in ChatGPT · How it works →