Houston Texans pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Texans weekly

Second and ten at the Houston twelve, forty-three seconds left, Texans up thirty to twenty-seven. Dak Prescott threw short over the middle to CeeDee Lamb for a twelve-yard touchdown. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap moved twenty-nine points Dallas's way, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus three point four. It was Lamb's twenty-first target of the afternoon. The Texans lost thirty-four to thirty at home, are oh and four, and lost on the day their passing game was the best it has been all season.