Buffalo Bills pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Bills weekly

Fourth and six at the Chargers' forty-three, eleven fifteen left in the game, Buffalo down thirteen to ten. The drive existed because of the defense: it started at the Buffalo forty-two, where Gardner-Johnson had brought back an interception of Justin Herbert from the Buffalo one. Josh Allen threw short left to Ty Johnson, and Johnson went forty-three yards into the end zone. A flag came back: offensive holding on Dawson Knox, marked from the fourteen, so no touchdown, but still a first down at the twenty-four. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap was worth nineteen points, one of the two biggest swings of the game along with Herbert's interception. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, plus four point four. Two more offensive holding calls followed, one of them wiping out a sixteen-yard Allen scramble to the four, and Buffalo was facing second and twenty-six at the Chargers' forty. Allen scrambled for eight, a defensive holding flag added five, and a fumble on the play was overturned on review. Then Cook for eleven, Cook for eleven, Cook for four, and Allen from the one with seven thirty-seven left. Buffalo's first lead of the day. Bills twenty-four, Chargers sixteen, and three and oh.