Buffalo Bills pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Bills weekly

Second and six at the Buffalo forty, one fourteen left in the game, Buffalo down twenty-nine to twenty-six. Josh Allen threw deep left for Josh Palmer, and Woodson intercepted at the New England nineteen. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that throw cost Buffalo twenty-seven points, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, minus one point seven. Buffalo still had all three timeouts, and two snaps later New England faced third and ten at its own nineteen, but Hunter Henry caught a twelve-yard ball for the first down and the Patriots ran out the clock. Patriots twenty-nine, Bills twenty-six. Buffalo is three and one, and this is the first loss.