Indianapolis Colts pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Colts weekly

Third and six at the Houston forty-one, twenty-four seconds left, Colts down seventeen to sixteen. Daniel Jones threw short left to Keenan Allen, and it was ruled a first down at the thirty-five; replay reversed it to five yards, fourth and one at the Houston thirty-six. Houston called its last timeout, and Spencer Shrader made it from fifty-three with twenty-one seconds left. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — that kick was worth thirty-six points, the biggest swing of the game. The Colts beat the Texans nineteen to seventeen at home for their first win of the season, on four Shrader field goals, after leading for about forty-eight minutes and losing the lead with one fifty left.