Jacksonville Jaguars pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Jaguars weekly

Third and seventeen at the New England seventeen, one thirteen left in the third quarter, Jacksonville up fourteen to three. The Jaguars had been at first and goal from the two; a false start, two incompletions and a touchdown wiped out by an illegal-use-of-hands penalty had pushed them back fifteen yards. Trevor Lawrence threw deep left for Parker Washington, touchdown — plus three point nine by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. It was the fourth third down Jacksonville converted on a fifteen-play drive that took more than eight and a half minutes. On New England's next snap Jarrian Jones intercepted Drake Maye at the Patriots' thirty-six and returned it to the five, and Rodriguez ran it in on the next play. Fourteen points in nineteen seconds of game clock, touchdown snap to touchdown snap: fourteen to three became twenty-eight to three. Jacksonville beat the Patriots thirty-five to six at home, led from early in the second quarter on, and by the win probability model — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — bottomed out at about forty percent.