New York Jets pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Jets weekly

Third and four at the Chicago thirty-three, ten fifty-eight left in the third quarter, the Jets down thirteen to three. It was the best drive they had all day, seven plays from their own thirty-five, four straight Braelon Allen runs for twenty-six yards to the Chicago thirty-nine. Then Allen lost five on first down, Jelani Woods caught one for eleven, and on third and four Geno Smith was sacked by Bush for eight, back to the forty-one. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that sack was minus three point two. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost the Jets eight and a half points, the most of any Jets offensive snap. They punted, and the ball was downed at the Chicago four. The Bears won twenty-three to twelve. The Jets never led, had the ball for about seventeen of the sixty minutes, and ran thirty-two pass and rush plays to Chicago's eighty-six.