Baltimore Ravens pass rate over expected, 2026

From the Ravens weekly

First and ten at the Baltimore thirty-five, seven seconds left, thirty-one all. Dallas had just tied it. Lamar Jackson threw deep down the middle to Zay Flowers for twenty-seven yards to the Dallas thirty-eight, Baltimore called its last timeout with one second on the clock, and Tyler Loop made a fifty-six-yard field goal. That kick was worth twenty-seven points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the biggest swing of the game, and the catch before it was worth nearly nineteen. Baltimore beat Dallas thirty-four to thirty-one on Sunday afternoon in Rio de Janeiro. The Ravens trailed ten to nothing in the first quarter, when their win probability bottomed out at nineteen percent, then scored seventeen straight points and led from eleven twenty-nine of the second quarter until nine forty-six of the fourth. Dallas scored fifteen straight to go up twenty-eight to twenty-four. Baltimore went back ahead with ninety-four seconds left, was tied with ten seconds left, and won it on the last snap.