Ravens 10, Jaguars 33 — Week 9: 57 Passing Yards, Two Picks

Baltimore lost 33-10 to Jacksonville at home on Thursday night, and the passing game is why the margin grew that wide. The Jaguars scored a touchdown in the first five minutes even after the Ravens stopped them twice at the 1, and led 17-3 at the half. 11 Baltimore drives produced a touchdown, a field goal, two interceptions, a turnover on downs and three three-and-outs. The offense converted 4 of 14 third downs and never ran a play inside the Jacksonville 20.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far it fell: 20 pass plays worth -16.7, -0.84 a play against +0.09 through Week 8. Only 25% were successful plays, those that gained what the situation asked for, and they produced 57 yards and no touchdowns. Joe Fagnano went 10 of 18 for 60 yards with 2 interceptions. Jacksonville sent five or more rushers on 9 of 21 dropbacks, 42.9% against the 34% Baltimore had faced through Week 8. The charting graded 2 of Fagnano's throws interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 10.5% of Baltimore's throws against 3.5% through Week 8, and the Jaguars caught both. Both were short throws to the left for Zay Flowers. Down 17-3 to open the third quarter, third and 14 at the Baltimore 25, the first was picked at the 32 and returned to the 26, -3.9 EPA, and Jacksonville kicked a field goal from there. The second, on first and 10 at the Baltimore 29 early in the fourth, was returned to the 23, -5.9 EPA.

The run game ran into loaded fronts all night, and the box count shows it: Jacksonville averaged 7.33 defenders in the box on designed runs, against 6.63 Baltimore had seen through Week 8, and showed six or fewer on only 7 of 33, 21.2% against 40.7%. Derrick Henry ran into eight or more on 14 of his 17 carries, after 10 of 158 through Week 8, and those 14 gained 50 yards. The yardage came anyway, 172 on 34 rush plays with a touchdown, but only 35.3% were successful, worth -0.06 EPA a play against -0.05 through Week 8, a shade under standard. Justice Hill found the room, 9 carries for 85 yards and the touchdown without facing eight or more once. Henry finished with 57 yards on 17 carries, and Flowers added 3 carries for 17.

The pass defense gave up too many completions that mattered, and success rate allowed starts the story: 53.8% of Jacksonville's 26 pass plays succeeded, for 242 yards and a touchdown, +0.30 EPA a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. The charting says the throws were not easy ones: 18 of Trevor Lawrence's 26 were catchable, 69.2% against 73.2% allowed through Week 8, and 4 were contested, 15.4% against 13%. Baltimore sent five or more on 10 of 26 dropbacks, 38.5% against 33%, and never sacked him. Third down held, 8 stops on 12, three of them incompletions for Parker Washington, but Washington's 2 catches went for 61 yards and a touchdown and Jakobi Meyers caught 4 of 6 for 65. The one takeaway came up 20-3 in the third, second and 1 at the Baltimore 49: Malaki Starks tackled Travis Hunter for a 3-yard loss on a short throw and forced a fumble that Teddye Buchanan recovered at midfield, -5.7 EPA for Jacksonville.

The run defense was the unit that held, and EPA per play allowed says how well: Jacksonville's 29 rush plays were worth -0.17 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 8. Here a big negative number is good. Three backs ran 29 times for 78 yards, and 37.9% of the runs succeeded, with six or fewer in Baltimore's box on 19 of 29 designed runs, 65.5% against 56.2% through Week 8. The yards were not the problem; the goal line was. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. each scored, two touchdowns on 11 red-zone plays. In the first quarter, first and goal at the 1, a pass fell incomplete and Roquan Smith stopped Rodriguez for no gain before Jacksonville scored anyway. In the second, first and 10 at the Jacksonville 4, Kyle Hamilton dropped Tuten for a 3-yard loss to the 1, -1.6 EPA for Jacksonville, and that drive ended on a third-and-7 incompletion at the 24.

The game turned in the second quarter, on the drive that could have tied it. Down 10-3 with 6:31 left, Baltimore moved from its own 20 to third and 1 at the 29, and a direct snap to Mark Andrews went nowhere, -1.7 EPA and 5.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Henry took the fourth-down carry around right end for 4, +1.9 EPA and 7.1 points, the largest swing of the game. The drive stalled at the Baltimore 45 on a third-and-9 incompletion for Flowers, and it was 17-3 at the half.

The scheme lost its fake and moved the ball sideways. Play-action came on 3 of 21 dropbacks, 14.3% against 25.7% through Week 8, and Fagnano went 0 for 3 off it, against 10 of 15 for 60 yards off straight dropbacks. Screens jumped to 5 of 21 dropbacks, 23.8% against 6.7%, and 3 went to Hill, who caught all of them for 7 yards. The run-pass option (RPO), a play the quarterback can hand off or throw after the snap, rose to 4 of 54 snaps, 7.4% against 4.4%. Motion held near form at 46.7% of charted plays against 50%. Jacksonville used the fake Baltimore could not: Lawrence went 4 of 4 for 89 yards off play-action and 12 of 22 for 153 off straight dropbacks.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game that had come apart across three quarterbacks had one who could bring it back, and get the ball to a catchable spot more than half the time. Half of it was answered. Fagnano took 20 of the 21 dropbacks; the other was Henry's direct-snap throw to Flowers that lost 3 yards. Of 19 throws, 12 were catchable, 63.2%, and Fagnano's own 61.1% was up from 52.4% in his earlier work. The rest did not come back: -0.84 EPA a play, and 2 interception-worthy throws, both picked, after 1 before this game. The one to watch next: whether a passing game this short of threat can pull a defender out of Henry's box, after a night when he ran into eight or more on 14 of 17 carries.

That's your Ravens, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Ravens on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._