San Francisco 49ers pass rate over expected, 2026
+4.8
3rd of 32 in the NFL
- -1.0
- On 64 neutral-script plays through Week 3
Do the 49ers pass more than expected?
The 49ers have a pass rate over expected of +4.8 through Week 3, 3rd in the NFL — above zero means they throw more often than the game situation calls for.
Week by week
| Through | PROE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | +5.1 | 4th |
| Week 2 | +4.6 | 4th |
| Week 3 | +4.8 | 3rd |
Last season
Up from -0.5 in 2025, which ranked 12th of 32.
From the 49ers weekly
Third and twelve at the San Francisco eighteen, eight forty left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing. Brock Purdy threw short left to Mike Evans, Evans took it two yards to the twenty and lateraled to Deebo Samuel, and Samuel went the other eighty for the touchdown. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was plus seven point seven. It moved win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, by twenty points, more than any other snap in the game. San Francisco led from that play to the final whistle and beat the Cardinals thirty-six to thirty at home to go three and oh. After it, Arizona's chance of winning never rose above about thirty-one percent.
Read the Week 3 note →Which teams pass the most over expected in 2026?
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.2), Dallas Cowboys (+5.1), then San Francisco 49ers (+4.8) lead the league. All 32 teams on the Pass Rate Over Expected board.
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