Daniel Jones

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• Week 2Sep 21, 2026

  Daniel Jones — Week 2: Forty-Eight Yards in Overtime

  Jones completed 22 of 31 throws for 210 yards, one touchdown and one interception with no sacks, and his 31 pass plays were worth plus 5.9 expected points after minus 15.2 in Week 1. His 48-yard completion to Laquon Treadwell in overtime, first ruled a catch and lost fumble and reversed on replay, set up the tying field goal; a first-quarter interception at his own 16 became a Chiefs touchdown two snaps later, in a 33–30 overtime loss to the Chiefs.

• Week 1Sep 14, 2026

  Daniel Jones — Week 1: One Pick, Sixteen Points of Win Probability

  Jones threw the interception that turned the game — second and twelve at the Indianapolis twenty-eight, down 7–6 in the first quarter, short middle, picked off by Roquan Smith — and it cost the Colts sixteen points of win probability, the largest swing on either side. He finished nineteen of thirty-one throws for a hundred sixty-six yards, one touchdown, one interception and two sacks, and thirty-three Colts pass plays came out at minus fifteen expected points in a 41–23 loss to the Ravens.

• Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

  Daniel Jones Camp Update — August 31: The First Snaps Wait for Baltimore

  Daniel Jones was held out of the preseason finale a day before kickoff, no reason given, reversing his coach's stated plan — so his first game snaps since the December Achilles tear will come in Week One against Baltimore. The roster Indianapolis announced Sunday kept all three quarterbacks, per the Colts' website, and no backup has been named.

• Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

  Daniel Jones Camp Update — August 23: No Incompletions Against Atlanta

  Daniel Jones completed every pass he threw in Wednesday's joint practice against the Falcons, per the team's notebook, eight months removed from his Achilles tear. Next up, per his coach: actual game snaps in the finale against Detroit.

• Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

  Daniel Jones Camp Update — August 16: First Live Rush, and a Touchdown Drive

  Daniel Jones faced his first live pass rush since the Achilles tear and answered with a first-team two-minute touchdown drive against New England's starting defense. The checkpoint the June preview was waiting on just got passed.

• 2026 PreviewJul 3, 2026

  Daniel Jones 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't

  Jones finished as QB18 across 13 games in 2025, averaging 17.4 half-PPR points per game on a season that was largely a proving exercise after his Achilles recovery. His 65.9% availability rate from 2021 through 2025 is the dominant fact about him — the per-game production has been real when he's on the field, but staying on the field is the input that keeps failing to repeat.

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  Show notes & transcript

  Daniel Jones was the thirteenth-best quarterback in football per game last season. He is the 20-fifth one off draft boards. The 12-slot gap has a date attached: December seventh, the afternoon his Achilles tore in Jacksonville while he was already playing on a broken leg. Everything about this price is a medical projection wearing a fantasy jersey.

  The season the injury interrupted was the best of his career by the metrics that matter here: 13 games, a 68 percent completion rate, 3101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns against eight picks, plus a hundred 64 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. 17.4 points a game on quarterback scoring — standard four-point passing, identical to Half-PPR for quarterbacks — thirteenth among qualifiers per game, seventeenth in total despite the four missing games. Indianapolis started eight-and-two, per the club's own season recap, and finished eight-and-nine after the quarterback room disintegrated — the franchise signed 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement two days after the injury, per ESPN, which tells you how December went.

  The career reads like two different players sharing a jersey number: 16-five as a rookie, the 18-one 20-22 season, two injury-wrecked years — nine-five and 13-five — and now 17-four. The pattern in the noise: when his legs are part of the offense, he's a per-game QB1; the rushing was 20 percent of his scoring last year, five touchdowns of it.

  The pattern beat must be honest about its boundaries. Our injury-recovery cohort — 93 players, median 70 percent of prior scoring — conditions on receivers, backs, and tight ends. It has never met a quarterback Achilles, and we won't stretch it across positions to manufacture a number. The rushing-floor rule doesn't fire either — 20 percent sits under its 25 percent line. What's left is the plainest true sentence available: 17-four a game is a top-13 rate, and no base rate we trust can price the tendon it now runs on.

  The tendon file, dated. Cleared for seven-on-seven work June eighth — the team called it a significant step and pumped the brakes when he asked for 11-on-11, per ESPN and the beat's late-June notebooks. He says, quote, absolutely, he'll be ready for week one against Baltimore, September thirteenth, per NFL.com; Shane Steichen's plan holds team drills for training camp. The franchise already voted with the transition tag in March, then the real contract: two years, 88 million, 50 fully guaranteed, per ESPN. Around him: Michael Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh in March, Alec Pierce re-signed at market-resetting money but had spring ankle surgery, Tyler Warren enters year two, Josh Downs enters a contract year — and Anthony Richardson's winter trade request remains granted-but-unconsummated, leaving him to battle Riley Leonard for the backup job, per ESPN in June.

  The price: QB25 at pick one-48 for a top-13 per-game rate — a 12-slot discount that is entirely the surgeon's line item. Our verdict: watchlist. We don't underwrite Achilles tendons, and we won't fade a 17-four rate attached to 50 million guaranteed either — the same honest middle we took on this batch's other January surgeries. The caveat, both directions: quarterback is the position that historically tolerates this injury best — no pattern of ours, just anatomy and precedent we can't verify, so we say it as context — and a September version at even 90 percent makes QB25 the value of the round. A October version makes it a wasted pick with a famous name.

  Watch the 11-on-11 clearance date in camp — that's the real medical report — and the designed-run count in September, because the five rushing scores were a fifth of his fantasy case and the first thing a cautious staff trims. He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.