Daniel Jones — Week 1: One Pick, Sixteen Points of Win Probability
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Jones threw the interception that turned the game — second and twelve at the Indianapolis twenty-eight, down 7–6 in the first quarter, short middle, picked off by Roquan Smith — and it cost the Colts sixteen points of win probability, the largest swing on either side. He finished nineteen of thirty-one throws for a hundred sixty-six yards, one touchdown, one interception and two sacks, and thirty-three Colts pass plays came out at minus fifteen expected points in a 41–23 loss to the Ravens.
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Seven 38 left in the first quarter, second and 12 at the Indianapolis 28, Colts down seven to six. Daniel Jones, from the shotgun, threw short over the middle for Laquon Treadwell, and Roquan Smith intercepted it at the 32. That throw cost Indianapolis 16.4 points of win probability — win probability is a team's chance of winning the game given the situation, and this was the largest single swing on either side all afternoon — and −4.8 expected points added, which is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. Six plays later Derrick Henry scored from the four, and the Colts did not lead again.
The passing line: 19 completions on 31 throws, a hundred 66 yards, one touchdown, one interception, two sacks for −17. 33 pass plays came out at −15.2 expected points in total, and 12.2 of that was the first half: 19 pass plays, 88 yards. The second turnover was also on a throw of his — first and 10 at the Indianapolis 34 with six 47 left in the half, short left to Jonathan Taylor for 14, and Marlon Humphrey knocked it out and recovered it at the 47. On the third snap after that, Henry ran 32 yards for a touchdown. After halftime the passing game was closer to even, 14 pass plays for 78 yards at −3, and the touchdown came from the nine with 10 32 left in the game: first and nine, shotgun, short middle to Tyler Warren, down 38 to 16, at the end of a no-huddle drive that Alec Pierce carried with catches of 14 23 in the space of three snaps.
Where the ball went: six targets each to Pierce and Keenan Allen, five to Warren, four each to Taylor and Josh Downs, one apiece to Ashton Dulin, Andrew Ogletree, Treadwell and McGowan; two throws carried no intended receiver. 201 air yards on 31 throws. Indianapolis converted three of 10 third downs — two on Downs catches on the opening drive, one on Taylor's three-yard touchdown run — and Jones's one carry was a four-yard scramble on second and three that moved the chains in the third quarter. His last snap was fourth and 11 at the Baltimore 31 with three 27 left, sacked by Malaki Starks.
Back in June the preview's read on Jones was a QB18 season across 13 games after an Achilles recovery, with availability — about 66 percent over five seasons — as the input that kept failing. Sunday all 33 Colts pass plays were his, so the input that fails did not fail. The throwing did, in the half that decided the game, and that is one afternoon against one defense. Indianapolis is at the Chiefs on Sunday night the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
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