Daniel Jones — Week 8: Two Picks, One Returned 92

Daniel Jones had his costliest game of the season against the Jaguars: 19 of 28 for 144 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, sacked three times, plus 4 carries for 7 yards, in a 42-7 loss. His passing was worth -16.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, his lowest this season by that measure; Week 4 at Washington, at -13.4, was the next. Over 33 dropbacks he was at -0.51 per dropback. His longest completion went 18 yards.

The throw that defined it came with 25 seconds left in the half. Down 21-0, a strip-sack had given the offense the ball at the Jacksonville 31, and two short completions reached the 17. Out of a timeout on first and 10, he threw short left for Tyler Warren with Ruke Orhorhoro hitting him on the play, and Rayuan Lane III intercepted at the 8 and returned it 92 yards for a touchdown: -11.0 EPA and 6.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the costliest play of the game by EPA. Early in the fourth, down 42-7, second and 10 at the Jacksonville 34, he threw short over the middle for Warren again and Branson Combs intercepted at the 19, -4.3 EPA. Anthony Richardson played the rest of the way.

The rest was short. On the opening drive, third and 4 at the Jacksonville 42, his short pass to Jonathan Taylor lost 7 yards, -2.7 EPA, and the Colts punted. On fourth and 3 at his own 42 in the third, Arik Armstead and Josh Hines-Allen shared the sack. His touchdown came at 35-0, 6 yards to Josh Downs on third and 6.

The completion rate was not the problem. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -0.8, against -4.0 through Week 7. The per-dropback rate was: -0.51 here, against -0.14 through Week 7, when he had -36.3 EPA on 266 dropbacks, 4 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._