Garrett Wilson (WR, New York Jets) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Jun 13, 2026.
In 2025, Garrett Wilson finished WR62 at 11.6 Half-PPR points per game (81.5 total) across 7 games.
Muffed's 2026 take on Garrett Wilson: a 35%-target-share alpha whose ceiling is gated by an unsettled Jets QB room.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
a 35%-target-share alpha whose ceiling is gated by an unsettled Jets QB room.
When Garrett Wilson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Garrett Wilson Camp Update — August 31: Untouched as the Room Is Trimmed
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2025: 36 catches for 395 yards, 4 TDs on 59 targets (7 games)
Where he ranks — 2025
Compared with
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Jets backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Garrett Wilson Camp Update — August 23: A Sick Day, Then Back to Work
Garrett Wilson missed Monday's practice with an illness, was back catching a tight-window throw from Geno Smith on Tuesday, and drew a pass breakup from Dane Belton on Wednesday. The game reporting from Pittsburgh logged nothing on him either way, so the week's file is practice tape.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Garrett Wilson Camp Update — August 16: Healthy, Everywhere, and Two Scores
Garrett Wilson practiced both joint-practice days, scored twice against Tampa Bay's defense, and converted two third downs in the game from rookie Cade Klubnik. Last week's hesitation scare never became an injury-report line.
- 2026 Preview
Garrett Wilson 2026 Season Preview — a proven alpha, an unsolved quarterback
WATCHLIST — a 35%-target-share alpha whose ceiling is gated by an unsettled Jets QB room.
Show notes & transcript
Garrett Wilson is a three-time thousand-yard alpha who just lost most of a season to a knee — and whose biggest problem isn't the knee, it's that nobody knows who's throwing him the ball in 2026. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was seven games of elite usage cut short: a 35 percent target share and a 56 percent air-yards share before a knee sprain ended it — among the highest alpha workloads in football. The signature was a Week 4 deep touchdown from Justin Fields at Miami. When healthy, he's the entire passing game.
The arc is the reassuring part: 95 catches, a hundred one catches, then the injury-shortened year. Wilson has been a remarkably stable high-volume alpha since he entered the league — three straight seasons around a thousand yards on bad offenses with worse quarterbacks. The volume is bankable. The scoring never has been, because the quarterback play never has been.
What repeats: the targets, emphatically — a 35-percent share is the stickiest, safest usage in the sport, and his has been elite for years. What caps him is everything downstream of the throw. His touchdown share spiked to 24 percent in a seven-game sample, which is noise, not signal.
The situation has resolved more than it's still unsettled, per the reports: the Jets traded Justin Fields to Kansas City and brought in Geno Smith as the new starter, with new offensive coordinator Frank Reich planning to move Wilson around the formation — X, F, and Z — and target him heavily. That's a real answer to last year's biggest question mark, even if "answer" doesn't mean "upgrade" is guaranteed. Wilson himself is past the knee injury that ended his 2025 early — full health, by his own account ("I feel great") and the staff's ("he looks really good"). A proven alpha is only as good as the arm feeding him, and that arm is now a known, established veteran rather than a question mark.
The price: pick 42, the nineteenth receiver. Verdict: WATCHLIST — the volume profile is genuinely WR1-caliber and the price is a discount, but a new play-caller and a new-to-him veteran quarterback are still two variables we haven't seen on the field together. The counter for him: if Reich and Smith produce even competent quarterback play, a 34-percent-share alpha in the games he played at WR19 is a steal. Against: it's still an unproven pairing, and his ceiling has always been quarterback-gated.
September watch: the Reich-Smith offense in live games, full stop; then whether the target share returns to its elite level now that health isn't the question. If he's one of your guys, Muffed builds this show for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.
- 2025 Review
Garrett Wilson 2025 Season in Review
Show notes & transcript
Garrett Wilson finished 2025 as the number 62 wide receiver in total PPR scoring — but the number that actually matters? He was the number 14 wide receiver in PPR per game among qualifiers. That gap tells the whole story in one breath. Wilson played just seven games for a Jets team that finished three and 14, and when he was on the field, he produced like a clear weekly starter. This wasn't a decline. This wasn't a role loss. This was a top-15-per-game receiver chained to an offense that finished 29th in total offensive expected points added, with a quarterback room posting the worst adjusted net yards per attempt among qualified starters. Wilson didn't get muffed by his own play — he got muffed by the situation around him and a season that ended early.
Now let's dig into the numbers. In seven games, Wilson caught 36 balls for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns on 59 targets — just over 8 targets a game on an offense that couldn't sustain anything. His average target share was 35 percent. His average air yards share was 56 percent. Read those again — 35 percent of the targets, 56 percent of the air yards. That is alpha-receiver, every-route-matters usage, the kind of workload that normally belongs to top-10 fantasy wideouts. Average separation of 3.06 yards and average cushion of 6.49 yards say he was still winning his routes. And the consistency was real on the high end: Wilson averaged 14.2 PPR per game with four outings of 22.5, 24.4, 20.2, and 19.1. The drag came from a 4.3-point dud against the Broncos and a zero-catch shutout against the Browns in Week 10 — the kind of variance you get when your quarterback room posts a completion percentage below expected and takes 60 sacks as a team.
The defining shape of Wilson's year isn't one highlight — it's that he scored 4 touchdowns in 7 games on a team whose red-zone touchdown rate was just 52.9 percent, 29th in the league. He was finding the end zone at a clip his offense didn't deserve. The Week 4 deep touchdown at Miami — Justin Fields, second and 10 from the 23, shotgun, dropping it deep right for a 23-yard score down 14 in the fourth quarter — is the cleanest snapshot of what Wilson still is: a receiver his quarterback trusts to win one-on-one when the offense needs a play. That's the year in a sentence. Elite usage, real production per game, season cut short.
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