Matthew Stafford — Week 5: 40 of 54, 383 Yards, No Picks
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Tuesday, Oct 13
Stafford completed 40 of 54 passes for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions against the Bills, and drove the Rams to a tying touchdown with 8 seconds left, in a 37-34 overtime loss at home.
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The full read
Matthew Stafford doubled his first month's value in one night against the Bills and still lost: 40 of 54, 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions and 1 sack. He was worth +18.5 expected points added (EPA) on 56 dropbacks, +0.33 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.
The drive that defined his night started down 34-27 at the Los Angeles 37 with 1:32 left. He hit Davante Adams for 14 and 15, Puka Nacua for 16, and Kyren Williams for 9 on third and 7 at the 10, down to the 1. Williams scored with 8 seconds left to force overtime.
Overtime's best throw was his too: tied 34-34, second and 10 at the Los Angeles 44, deep right to Nacua for 21 yards to the Buffalo 35, +21.5 points of win probability. The possession stalled at the 30 without points.
His most valuable single throw came on fourth and 6 at the Buffalo 40 in the third quarter, down 13-7: 10 yards to Tyler Higbee, +3.8 EPA, and Blake Corum scored on that drive.
This was a different quarterback from his first month. Weeks 1 through 4 brought +9.0 EPA on 169 dropbacks, +0.05 per dropback, and 6 interceptions, at least one in every game. His 40 completions were a season high, and his completion percentage over expected (CPOE), completions against what each throw's difficulty predicted, was +1.3, after -0.1 through Week 4.
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_Data via nflverse._
When Matthew Stafford's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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