Matthew Stafford — Week 1: Stopped at the One, and Fifteen of Twenty-Five
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Friday, Sep 11
Stafford completed fifteen of twenty-five for a hundred fifty-five yards, no touchdowns and one interception, and the drive that could have made it a game ended on his keeper: fourth and one at the San Francisco one, down 17–7 with three forty-six left in the third, he kept it behind the right guard and was stopped short, a ruling the replay official upheld. Stetson Bennett took the final possession of a 27–7 loss in Melbourne.
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Fourth and one at the San Francisco one, three 46 left in the third quarter, Los Angeles down 17 to seven. Matthew Stafford kept the ball behind the right guard and did not get to the goal line; the replay official looked at it and the ruling stood. That play was worth −3.8 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and San Francisco went 99 yards the other way for the touchdown that made it a three-score game. It was the end of a 12-play, seven-minute drive Stafford had built with a 23-yard throw to Puka Nacua on second and five and a 13-yarder to Davante Adams on first and 15. The Rams did not score again.
The passing line: 15 completions on 25 throws, a hundred 55 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, no sacks. 232 air yards on those 25 throws — he was pushing the ball downfield all night, and most of it did not land. The throws that did were both to Nacua: 41 yards deep right on second and two with a minute 31 left in the first quarter, to the San Francisco eight, which set up Kyren Williams's touchdown; and the 23 in the third. The interception was third and 10 from the San Francisco 35 with eight 58 left in the half, Rams up seven to three, deep right for Nacua, picked off by Renardo Green at the 14. Two snaps earlier Los Angeles had been a 73 percent favorite by win probability, the high point of its night.
The Rams' 28 pass plays as a team produced −11 expected points, and the Rams converted two of nine third downs. Stafford also threw the fourth-and-five incompletion deep right to Terrance Ferguson from the 49 with seven 58 left in the fourth, and his last throw was that one; Stetson Bennett took the final possession, which began with three 29 left and Los Angeles down 20. The play-by-play gives no reason for the change and neither will this show.
Back in June the preview's case for Stafford rested on availability — that a QB3 season had been built on playing all 17 games rather than on any spike in efficiency. Thursday he played until the game was decided, and the efficiency was the problem: a hundred 55 yards on 25 throws against a defense that finished 20-fourth in the league in expected points allowed last season. That is one night, in a division game, and it does not undo a season's rank. Los Angeles is home to the Giants on Monday the 20-first.
_Data via nflverse._
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